MDLZ
Mondelez International
$65.12
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
USFL alternative · entry card
APPENDIX · MDLZ · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 70.5
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 20.0 + 2.3 = 22.3 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 20 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 70.5 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Up |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Up |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✖ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 0/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 74.9
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 25 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive but rolling over from >80th pctile | 6.2 / 25 |
| Band position | 13.7 / 20 |
| Raw | 74.9 (Early Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 74.9 Early Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (MDLZ close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +5.63% | +2.68% | Est. Up ≥ 61.61 (-5.4%) · Est. Down < 55.93 |
| Trend · XLP | 4 Early Down (−) → | -0.60% | -0.43% | Est. Up ≥ 65.60 (+0.7%) · Est. Down < 61.63 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) ↑ | +3.72% | +6.23% | Est. Up ≥ 63.06 (-3.2%) · Est. Down < 49.16 |
| Trading · XLP | 1 Established Up (+) ↑ | +1.22% | +3.24% | Est. Up ≥ 64.64 (-0.7%) · Early Up ≥ 64.49 · Est. Down < 64.14 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 65.12)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 70.60–72.70 | +8.4% to +11.6% | wk high ’25-03-14 70.60 · wk high ’25-07-25 71.15 · wk high 2024-10-18 72.70 |
| R2 | 68.00–69.81 | +4.4% to +7.2% | wk high ’25-05-30 68.00 · wk high ’25-04-25 69.09 · wk high ’25-04-04 69.12 · wk high ’25-07-04 69.81 |
| R1 | 65.38–66.65 | +0.4% to +2.3% | wk high 2024-11-29 65.38 · wk high 08-28 65.55 · wk low ’25-06-13 65.66 · wk low ’25-07-11 65.90 · wk high 07-31 66.65 |
| S1 | 63.04–64.95 | -0.3% to -3.2% | wk high ’25-09-26 64.95 · wk high 06-12 64.35 · wk low ’25-05-02 64.29 · wk high ’25-08-22 64.09 · wk high 09-18 63.83 · … +1 more · wk low ’25-05-16 63.43 · wk low 2024-11-22 63.40 · wk high ’25-10-24 63.24 · wk low ’25-04-11 63.14 · wk high 07-17 63.04 |
| S2 | 62.19–63.00 | -3.3% to -4.5% | wk high 06-26 63.00 · wk high 02-13 62.80 · wk high 05-22 62.59 · wk high 05-01 62.19 |
| S3 | 58.90–60.64 | -6.9% to -9.6% | 40-wk SMA 60.64 · wk low 09-11 60.47 · wk low ’25-10-17 60.41 · wk high ’25-01-03 60.33 · wk low ’25-08-15 60.26 · wk low 06-05 59.95 · wk high 04-03 59.38 · wk low ’25-09-05 59.37 · wk high ’25-01-31 59.28 · wk low 2024-12-27 58.90 |
| ATH | 78.59 | +20.7% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 63.04 (-3.2%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 62.19–63.00.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 62.19 (-4.5%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 58.90–60.64.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 61.61 (-5.4%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 61.61 · Est. Down < 55.93 (-14.1%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 63.06 · Est. Down < 49.16.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
PAG U.S. Focus List alternative, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-10-14 (RBC PAG "Guided Portfolio Large Cap Equity Grid", last updated October 14, 2026 (u.s._focus_list_current.pdf; Focus List names, weights and Alternatives), Gmail (sc.assistant80@gmail.com), "USFL and CFL equity grids" from stephen.k.chang@rbc.com, Oct 21, 2026 3:20 PM PT; matches the Oct 14, 2026 U.S. Focus List Change Report); Grid Alternative (Consumer Staples; no Focus List weight). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLP (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
