$440.75
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
USFL alternative · entry card
APPENDIX · ISRG · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 69.5
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 20.0 + 5.7 = 25.7 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 16 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 69.5 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Up |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Up |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Neutral → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Neutral → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 59.0
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 17 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive but decelerating | 12.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 9.5 / 20 |
| Raw | 59.0 (Neutral) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 59.0 Neutral |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (ISRG close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +12.20% | +2.30% | Est. Up ≥ 388.33 (-11.9%) · Est. Down < 326.11 |
| Trend · XLV | 2 Early Up (−) → | +2.21% | -3.22% | Est. Up ≥ 431.96 (-2.0%) · Early Up ≥ 425.54 · Est. Down < 423.27 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +2.02% | +0.18% | Est. Up ≥ 434.60 (-1.4%) · Est. Down < 356.72 |
| Trading · XLV | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -1.64% | -1.77% | Est. Up ≥ 483.63 (+9.7%) · Early Up ≥ 449.57 · Est. Down < 447.17 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 440.75)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 472.69–474.37 | +7.2% to +7.6% | wk high ’25-09-12 472.69 · wk low ’25-03-14 474.37 |
| R2 | 458.00–470.06 | +3.9% to +6.7% | wk low 03-13 458.00 · wk high ’25-10-10 460.30 · wk low ’25-08-22 461.25 · wk low ’25-04-25 463.05 · wk low ’25-08-08 463.90 · wk low 02-06 465.69 · wk low 2024-10-11 470.06 |
| R1 | 443.84–449.77 | +0.7% to +2.0% | wk high 07-10 443.84 · wk low 04-10 447.78 · wk high 05-22 449.77 |
| S1 | 425.00–434.80 | -1.3% to -3.6% | wk low ’25-09-05 434.80 · 200-day SMA 432.07 · wk high 06-12 430.85 · wk low ’25-09-19 429.72 · 40-wk SMA 428.10 · wk low ’25-10-17 427.84 · wk low ’25-04-11 425.00 |
| S2 | 405.34–417.74 | -5.2% to -8.0% | wk low 05-15 417.74 · wk high 08-21 405.34 |
| S3 | 389.11–398.99 | -9.5% to -11.7% | wk low 10-23 398.99 · wk low 07-03 397.52 · wk low 06-05 396.68 · wk low 10-09 389.11 |
| ATH | 616.00 | +39.8% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 425.00 (-3.6%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 405.34–417.74.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 405.34 (-8.0%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 389.11–398.99.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 388.33 (-11.9%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 388.33 · Est. Down < 326.11 (-26.0%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 434.60 · Est. Down < 356.72.
Sluymer context
- 2026-09-15 chartbook: “ISRG remains weak but oversold with early signs of a secondary low developing. First key resistance is at 405.”
- 2026-09-22 chartbook: “ISRG remains weak but oversold with early signs of a bottom developing near 340.”
- 2026-10-13 chartbook: “ISRG 2025-2026 trend reversal continues but is becoming overbought short-term as it approaches resistance near its declining red 200-day ma. Given the trend reversal, we expect pullbacks to be short lived with support between 389-416.”
Notes & caveats
PAG U.S. Focus List alternative, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-10-14 (RBC PAG "Guided Portfolio Large Cap Equity Grid", last updated October 14, 2026 (u.s._focus_list_current.pdf; Focus List names, weights and Alternatives), Gmail (sc.assistant80@gmail.com), "USFL and CFL equity grids" from stephen.k.chang@rbc.com, Oct 21, 2026 3:20 PM PT; matches the Oct 14, 2026 U.S. Focus List Change Report); Grid Alternative (Health Care; no Focus List weight). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLV (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
