$157.50
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
USFL constituent · entry card
APPENDIX · HONA · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 0.0
| Short history (20 wks): RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 0.0 + 0.0 |
| Structure (computable checks) | 0 / 10 |
| Score = points earned × 100 / 40 computable points | 0.0 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays, on the history that exists) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
– Fri close above 40-wk SMA n/a (short history) · – 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) n/a (short history) · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · – Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA n/a (short history) · – 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) n/a (short history)
Weekly raw states: 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. |
Scores · Trading 40.2
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 8.6 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 5 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive but decelerating | 12.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 14.1 / 20 |
| Raw | 40.2 (Early Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 40.2 Early Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (HONA close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -8.73% | -7.33% | Early Up ≥ 166.25 · Est. Down < 165.37 |
| Trend · XLI | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -5.37% | -8.10% | Early Up ≥ 161.02 · Est. Down < 160.16 |
| Trading · S&P | 4 Early Down (+) ↓ | -1.91% | +0.38% | Est. Up ≥ 161.49 (+2.5%) · Est. Down < 143.52 |
| Trading · XLI | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -5.24% | -2.27% | Est. Up ≥ 167.05 (+6.1%) · Est. Down < 163.76 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 157.50)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R1 | 170.30–170.32 | +8.1% to +8.1% | wk high 10-16 170.30 · wk high 09-25 170.32 |
| S1 | 149.19–150.03 | -4.7% to -5.3% | wk low 08-07 150.03 · wk low 10-09 149.88 · wk low 09-11 149.19 |
| ATH | 297.50 | +88.9% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 149.19 (-5.3%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor: no support nearby.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): No support nearby: only one support band exists below the price, so there is no separate trend stop.
- Trend vs S&P: above its 16-wk avg ≥ 166.25 · Est. Down < 165.37 (+5.0%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 161.49 · Est. Down < 143.52.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
PAG U.S. Focus List holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-10-14 (RBC PAG "Guided Portfolio Large Cap Equity Grid", last updated October 14, 2026 (u.s._focus_list_current.pdf; Focus List names, weights and Alternatives), Gmail (sc.assistant80@gmail.com), "USFL and CFL equity grids" from stephen.k.chang@rbc.com, Oct 21, 2026 3:20 PM PT; matches the Oct 14, 2026 U.S. Focus List Change Report); List weight 2.50%. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLI (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Short history (20 wks): under the 104 weekly bars of a full card. Checks that need more history (Fri close above 40-wk SMA, 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks), Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA, 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep)) are left out of both the points earned and the points possible, and the score is rescaled to 0–100 (40 points computable). Trend shows N/A under 10 weekly bars or when fewer than 30 points can be computed. The 2-Friday confirmation uses the history that exists. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
