$333.66
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
USFL alternative · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $344.00–353.55 | +3.1% to +6.0% | wk low ’25-12-12, wk low ’25-03-14, wk low ’25-06-20 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $323.05 | -3.2% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $315.31 | -5.5% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $341.80 | +2.4% | top of R1 (200-day SMA, wk low 01-09) |
APPENDIX · HD · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 46.8
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 15.4 + 7.7 = 23.1 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 5 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 46.8 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Neutral |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down; Neutral pending 1/2 |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✖ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 0/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Neutral. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 76.1
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 14 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive & rising | 25.0 / 25 |
| Band position | 7.1 / 20 |
| Raw | 76.1 (Established Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 76.1 Established Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (HD close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 2 Early Up (+) ↑ | +3.83% | +7.43% | Est. Up ≥ 358.75 (+7.5%) · Early Up ≥ 316.08 · Est. Down < 314.39 |
| Trend · XLY | 2 Early Up (+) → | +1.91% | +3.63% | Est. Up ≥ 347.35 (+4.1%) · Early Up ≥ 322.85 · Est. Down < 321.13 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +5.95% | +3.45% | Est. Up ≥ 317.56 (-4.8%) · Est. Down < 233.56 |
| Trading · XLY | 1 Established Up (+) → | +2.35% | +0.45% | Est. Up ≥ 327.95 (-1.7%) · Est. Down < 249.19 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 333.66)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 358.36–368.24 | +7.4% to +10.4% | wk high 08-14 358.36 · wk high 07-10 358.85 · wk low ’25-05-23 361.15 · wk high ’25-12-19 366.30 · 61.8% 367.93 · wk low 02-06 368.24 |
| R2 | 344.00–353.55 | +3.1% to +6.0% | wk low ’25-12-12 344.00 · wk low ’25-03-14 345.26 · wk low ’25-06-20 345.80 · wk low ’25-07-18 352.46 · wk high 04-24 353.55 |
| R1 | 333.88–341.80 | +0.1% to +2.4% | 200-day SMA 333.88 · wk low 01-09 337.71 · wk low ’25-04-25 341.80 |
| S1 | 323.05–332.73 | -0.3% to -3.2% | 40-wk SMA 332.73 · wk low ’25-11-21 331.37 · wk low 07-10 330.66 · wk low ’25-04-11 326.31 · wk low 07-24 323.05 |
| S2 | 315.31–322.10 | -3.5% to -5.5% | wk high 05-29 322.10 · wk low 06-26 321.70 · wk low 03-20 320.26 · wk low 04-10 315.31 |
| ATH | 439.37 | +31.7% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 323.05 (-3.2%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 315.31–322.10.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 315.31 (-5.5%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to the next lower level (none computed).
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 358.75 (+7.5%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 316.08 · Est. Down < 314.39 (-5.8%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 317.56 · Est. Down < 233.56.
Sluymer context
- 2026-10-13 chartbook: “HD remains weak but deeply oversold at its 50-62% retracement band between 254-290 with very early signs of bottoming as long-term interest rates show early signs of stalling.”
Notes & caveats
PAG U.S. Focus List alternative, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-10-14 (RBC PAG "Guided Portfolio Large Cap Equity Grid", last updated October 14, 2026 (u.s._focus_list_current.pdf; Focus List names, weights and Alternatives), Gmail (sc.assistant80@gmail.com), "USFL and CFL equity grids" from stephen.k.chang@rbc.com, Oct 21, 2026 3:20 PM PT; matches the Oct 14, 2026 U.S. Focus List Change Report); Grid Alternative (Consumer Discretionary; no Focus List weight). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLY (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
