$126.51
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
USFL alternative · entry card
APPENDIX · DUK · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 75.7
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 15.4 + 10.0 = 25.4 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 20 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 75.7 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Up |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Up |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 69.3
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 9.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 25 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive but rolling over from >80th pctile | 6.2 / 25 |
| Band position | 9.1 / 20 |
| Raw | 69.3 (Early Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 69.3 Early Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (DUK close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 2 Early Up (+) → | +5.75% | +5.97% | Est. Up ≥ 125.23 (-1.0%) · Early Up ≥ 120.35 · Est. Down < 119.71 |
| Trend · XLU | 1 Established Up (+) → | +3.24% | +1.93% | Est. Up ≥ 123.94 (-2.0%) · Est. Down < 112.82 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +3.84% | +2.50% | Est. Up ≥ 122.48 (-3.2%) · Est. Down < 90.67 |
| Trading · XLU | 1 Established Up (−) → | +0.32% | -0.16% | Est. Up ≥ 126.56 (+0.0%) · Est. Down < 115.68 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 126.51)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R2 | 130.70–134.49 | +3.3% to +6.3% | wk high 05-01 130.70 · wk high 07-31 132.65 · wk high 04-10 134.13 · ATH 03-17 134.49 |
| R1 | 126.77–130.37 | +0.2% to +3.1% | wk low 03-20 126.77 · wk high ’25-08-08 127.85 · wk high ’25-10-24 130.03 · wk high 07-10 130.37 |
| S1 | 122.90–125.95 | -0.4% to -2.9% | wk high 05-29 125.95 · wk high ’25-11-21 125.93 · wk high 08-21 125.66 · wk high ’25-04-04 125.27 · wk low 04-24 124.90 · … +3 more · 50% 124.20 · wk high ’25-05-09 124.17 · wk low 07-17 124.10 · wk high ’25-04-18 123.55 · wk high ’25-09-12 122.90 |
| S2 | 118.34–121.77 | -3.7% to -6.5% | 61.8% 121.77 · wk high ’25-03-21 121.47 · wk low ’25-08-22 121.33 · wk high 2024-10-25 121.25 · wk low 05-15 120.90 · wk low 06-05 119.76 · wk low ’25-09-19 119.69 · wk high ’25-07-04 119.33 · wk high 2024-11-29 118.58 · wk high ’25-06-13 118.34 |
| S3 | 114.92–117.91 | -6.8% to -9.2% | wk high ’25-12-19 117.91 · wk high ’25-05-30 117.88 · wk low ’25-08-01 117.45 · wk high ’25-02-14 116.81 · wk low ’25-07-11 115.40 · wk low 01-09 115.10 · wk low ’25-12-26 115.00 · wk low ’25-03-28 114.92 |
| ATH | 134.49 | +6.3% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 122.90 (-2.9%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 118.34–121.77.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 118.34 (-6.5%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 114.92–117.91.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 125.23 (-1.0%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 120.35 · Est. Down < 119.71 (-5.4%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 122.48 · Est. Down < 90.67.
Sluymer context
- 2026-10-06 chartbook: “DUK remains weak but is also becoming oversold near support at its 50% retracement level with early signs of stabilizing short-term.”
Notes & caveats
PAG U.S. Focus List alternative, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-10-14 (RBC PAG "Guided Portfolio Large Cap Equity Grid", last updated October 14, 2026 (u.s._focus_list_current.pdf; Focus List names, weights and Alternatives), Gmail (sc.assistant80@gmail.com), "USFL and CFL equity grids" from stephen.k.chang@rbc.com, Oct 21, 2026 3:20 PM PT; matches the Oct 14, 2026 U.S. Focus List Change Report); Grid Alternative (Utilities; no Focus List weight). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLU (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
