$225.27
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
USFL constituent · entry card
APPENDIX · CVX · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 100.0
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 20.0 + 10.0 = 30.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 30 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 100.0 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Up |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Up |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✔ No lower high vs cycle high 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 72.8
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 18.0 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 25 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive but rolling over from >80th pctile | 6.2 / 25 |
| Band position | 13.6 / 20 |
| Raw | 72.8 (Early Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 72.8 Early Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (CVX close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +14.53% | +5.78% | Est. Up ≥ 207.20 (-8.0%) · Est. Down < 157.69 |
| Trend · XLE | 1 Established Up (+) → | +2.69% | +2.02% | Est. Up ≥ 230.10 (+2.1%) · Est. Down < 216.20 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (−) → | +0.39% | -0.73% | Est. Up ≥ 225.47 (+0.1%) · Est. Down < 183.43 |
| Trading · XLE | 1 Established Up (+) → | +1.20% | +0.29% | Est. Up ≥ 223.46 (-0.8%) · Est. Down < 201.04 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 225.27)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R1 | 236.48–236.48 | +5.0% to +5.0% | ATH 10-30 236.48 |
| S1 | 214.71–217.78 | -3.3% to -4.7% | wk high 09-18 217.78 · wk high 04-03 214.71 |
| S2 | 197.69–201.96 | -10.3% to -12.2% | wk low 10-09 201.96 · wk low 09-25 200.78 · 50% 200.63 · wk high 05-22 198.87 · wk low 08-28 197.82 · wk high 07-24 197.69 |
| S3 | 192.17–194.81 | -13.5% to -14.7% | 40-wk SMA 194.81 · wk high 05-01 194.13 · 200-day SMA 193.94 · wk high 06-12 192.69 · 61.8% 192.17 |
| ATH | 236.48 | +5.0% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 214.71 (-4.7%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 197.69–201.96.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 197.69 (-12.2%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 192.17–194.81.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 207.20 (-8.0%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 207.20 · Est. Down < 157.69 (-30.0%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 225.47 · Est. Down < 183.43.
Sluymer context
- 2026-09-15 chartbook: “CVX remains in a positive long-term trend but is overbought and likely pausing short-term with support near 191-197.”
- 2026-09-22 chartbook: “CVX, similar to XOM, remains in a positive long-term profile but with a short-term pullback from resistance with support near 191-197.”
Notes & caveats
PAG U.S. Focus List holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-10-14 (RBC PAG "Guided Portfolio Large Cap Equity Grid", last updated October 14, 2026 (u.s._focus_list_current.pdf; Focus List names, weights and Alternatives), Gmail (sc.assistant80@gmail.com), "USFL and CFL equity grids" from stephen.k.chang@rbc.com, Oct 21, 2026 3:20 PM PT; matches the Oct 14, 2026 U.S. Focus List Change Report); List weight 2.50%. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLE (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
