$70.00
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
USFL alternative · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $73.12–75.06 | +4.5% to +7.2% | 61.8% retr., wk high ’25-08-22, wk low 03-20 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $67.71 | -3.3% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $63.97 | -8.6% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $72.78 | +4.0% | top of R1 (wk low ’25-03-14, wk high ’25-06-20) |
APPENDIX · CMS · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 43.5
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 15.4 + 5.7 = 21.1 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 5 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 43.5 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Neutral → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 57.3
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 4.3 / 30 |
| Structure | 10 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive but rolling over from >80th pctile | 6.2 / 25 |
| Band position | 16.8 / 20 |
| Raw | 57.3 (Neutral) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 57.3 Neutral |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (CMS close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 2 Early Up (+) → | +2.84% | +3.11% | Est. Up ≥ 80.21 (+14.6%) · Early Up ≥ 67.91 · Est. Down < 67.55 |
| Trend · XLU | 2 Early Up (−) → | +0.46% | -0.83% | Est. Up ≥ 72.83 (+4.0%) · Early Up ≥ 69.90 · Est. Down < 69.53 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +3.01% | +2.71% | Est. Up ≥ 68.32 (-2.4%) · Est. Down < 52.65 |
| Trading · XLU | 4 Early Down (+) ↓ | -0.50% | +0.04% | Est. Up ≥ 70.61 (+0.9%) · Est. Down < 66.64 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 70.00)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 75.50–76.45 | +7.9% to +9.2% | wk high ’25-04-25 75.50 · wk high ’25-11-28 75.53 · wk high ’25-10-17 76.11 · wk high 07-31 76.39 · wk high ’25-04-04 76.45 |
| R2 | 73.12–75.06 | +4.5% to +7.2% | 61.8% 73.12 · wk high ’25-08-22 74.14 · wk low 03-20 74.19 · wk high ’25-05-09 74.41 · 50% 74.50 · wk high ’25-08-08 74.94 · wk high 05-29 75.00 · wk high ’25-03-07 75.06 |
| R1 | 70.94–72.78 | +1.3% to +4.0% | wk low ’25-03-14 70.94 · wk high ’25-06-20 71.03 · wk high ’25-06-06 71.05 · wk low ’25-08-01 71.16 · wk high 2024-11-29 71.35 · … +6 more · wk high ’25-05-23 72.39 · wk high 2024-10-25 72.40 · wk high 08-21 72.44 · 200-day SMA 72.56 · 40-wk SMA 72.78 |
| S1 | 67.71–69.76 | -0.3% to -3.3% | wk low ’25-09-19 69.76 · wk high 09-11 69.36 · wk low 2024-10-11 68.96 · wk high ’25-01-24 68.94 · wk low 06-05 68.84 · … +1 more · wk low 01-09 68.64 · wk low ’25-06-27 68.41 · wk low ’25-05-30 68.37 · wk low ’25-04-11 68.15 · wk low ’25-05-16 67.71 |
| S2 | 63.97–65.47 | -6.5% to -8.6% | wk low 2024-12-20 65.47 · wk low ’25-02-07 65.17 · wk low 2024-11-08 65.09 · wk low ’25-01-17 63.97 |
| ATH | 80.36 | +14.8% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 67.71 (-3.3%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 63.97–65.47.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 63.97 (-8.6%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to the next lower level (none computed).
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 80.21 (+14.6%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 67.91 · Est. Down < 67.55 (-3.5%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 68.32 · Est. Down < 52.65.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
PAG U.S. Focus List alternative, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-10-14 (RBC PAG "Guided Portfolio Large Cap Equity Grid", last updated October 14, 2026 (u.s._focus_list_current.pdf; Focus List names, weights and Alternatives), Gmail (sc.assistant80@gmail.com), "USFL and CFL equity grids" from stephen.k.chang@rbc.com, Oct 21, 2026 3:20 PM PT; matches the Oct 14, 2026 U.S. Focus List Change Report); Grid Alternative (Utilities; no Focus List weight). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLU (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
