$304.06
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
USFL alternative · entry card
APPENDIX · CME · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 91.7
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 20.0 + 10.0 = 30.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 25 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 91.7 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Up |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Up |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 65.0
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 6.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 20 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive but rolling over from >80th pctile | 6.2 / 25 |
| Band position | 12.8 / 20 |
| Raw | 65.0 (Early Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 65.0 Early Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (CME close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +11.15% | +4.23% | Est. Up ≥ 275.05 (-9.5%) · Est. Down < 212.84 |
| Trend · XLF | 1 Established Up (+) → | +9.89% | +1.35% | Est. Up ≥ 278.57 (-8.4%) · Est. Down < 212.84 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +3.43% | +4.63% | Est. Up ≥ 295.78 (-2.7%) · Est. Down < 212.84 |
| Trading · XLF | 3 Neutral (+) → | +0.01% | +2.13% | Est. Up ≥ 305.18 (+0.4%) · Est. Down < 269.32 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 304.06)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R1 | 308.01–312.68 | +1.3% to +2.8% | wk high 05-22 308.01 · wk high 02-13 309.35 · wk high 04-10 312.68 |
| S1 | 292.62–300.81 | -1.1% to -3.8% | wk low 03-13 300.81 · 50% 293.17 · wk low 04-03 292.62 |
| S2 | 282.57–290.79 | -4.4% to -7.1% | wk high ’25-06-06 290.79 · wk high 09-04 289.90 · wk high ’25-08-15 288.28 · wk high ’25-11-14 287.74 · wk high ’25-05-09 286.48 · 61.8% 284.67 · wk high ’25-07-11 282.57 |
| S3 | 273.42–281.36 | -7.5% to -10.1% | wk high 09-18 281.36 · 40-wk SMA 280.91 · wk low 05-15 280.63 · 200-day SMA 280.48 · wk high 01-02 278.58 · wk high ’25-10-17 275.37 · wk low 04-24 274.60 · wk high ’25-10-03 274.17 · wk high ’25-04-04 273.42 |
| ATH | 329.16 | +8.3% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 292.62 (-3.8%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 282.57–290.79.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 282.57 (-7.1%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 273.42–281.36.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 275.05 (-9.5%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 275.05 · Est. Down < 212.84 (-30.0%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 295.78 · Est. Down < 212.84.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
PAG U.S. Focus List alternative, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-10-14 (RBC PAG "Guided Portfolio Large Cap Equity Grid", last updated October 14, 2026 (u.s._focus_list_current.pdf; Focus List names, weights and Alternatives), Gmail (sc.assistant80@gmail.com), "USFL and CFL equity grids" from stephen.k.chang@rbc.com, Oct 21, 2026 3:20 PM PT; matches the Oct 14, 2026 U.S. Focus List Change Report); Grid Alternative (Financials; no Focus List weight). Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLF (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
