$49.66
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
USFL constituent · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $52.85–54.20 | +6.4% to +9.1% | wk high ’25-10-17, wk high ’25-09-26, 61.8% retr. |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $47.98 | -3.4% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $46.12 | -7.1% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $51.74 | +4.2% | top of R1 (wk low ’25-11-21, wk high ’25-08-29) |
APPENDIX · BAC · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 16.7
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 0.0 + 0.0 = 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 10 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 16.7 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 23.5
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 5 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost) | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 16.0 / 20 |
| Raw | 23.5 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 23.5 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (BAC close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -13.77% | -1.36% | Early Up ≥ 57.87 · Est. Down < 57.56 |
| Trend · XLF | 5 Established Down (−) → | -14.60% | -4.09% | Early Up ≥ 58.52 · Est. Down < 58.21 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -0.64% | -0.95% | Est. Up ≥ 56.22 (+13.2%) · Early Up ≥ 50.09 · Est. Down < 49.82 |
| Trading · XLF | 5 Established Down (−) → | -3.98% | -3.32% | Early Up ≥ 51.70 · Est. Down < 51.43 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 49.66)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 54.69–55.68 | +10.1% to +12.1% | wk high ’25-11-14 54.69 · wk low 01-02 54.88 · 200-day SMA 54.92 · wk high 10-16 54.93 · 40-wk SMA 54.98 · wk high 04-17 55.40 · 50% 55.68 |
| R2 | 52.85–54.20 | +6.4% to +9.1% | wk high ’25-10-17 52.85 · wk high ’25-09-26 52.88 · 61.8% 53.42 · wk high 05-08 54.20 |
| R1 | 50.70–51.74 | +2.1% to +4.2% | wk low ’25-11-21 50.70 · wk high ’25-08-29 50.92 · wk low 01-30 51.31 · wk low 02-13 51.44 · wk low ’25-11-07 51.74 |
| S1 | 47.98–49.31 | -0.7% to -3.4% | wk high ’25-07-04 49.31 · wk low 05-15 49.30 · wk low 10-16 49.26 · wk high ’25-07-25 49.00 · wk low ’25-09-12 48.88 · wk low ’25-10-17 48.53 · wk high 2024-11-29 48.08 · wk high ’25-02-07 47.98 |
| S2 | 46.12–47.51 | -4.3% to -7.1% | wk high ’25-01-17 47.51 · wk high ’25-03-07 46.96 · wk low 03-20 46.12 |
| S3 | 44.69–45.14 | -9.1% to -10.0% | wk high ’25-05-23 45.14 · wk low ’25-02-07 45.11 · wk low ’25-07-18 45.01 · wk low ’25-08-08 44.75 · wk low ’25-01-17 44.69 |
| ATH | 65.23 | +31.4% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 47.98 (-3.4%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 46.12–47.51.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 46.12 (-7.1%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 44.69–45.14.
- Trend vs S&P: above its 16-wk avg ≥ 57.87 · Est. Down < 57.56 (+15.9%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 56.22 · Early Up ≥ 50.09 · Est. Down < 49.82.
Sluymer context
- 2026-09-29 chartbook: “BAC correction continues challenging its next important support band between 53-56 with short-term momentum (top right) moving into oversold levels.”
- 2026-10-06 chartbook: “BAC remains in a correction but at its 62% retracement (bottom panel) with daily momentum oversold and turning up. Source: RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg, Optuma”
- 2026-10-13 chartbook: “BAC is also oversold and beginning to bottom near its 62% retracement band in the low 50s. 59”
Notes & caveats
PAG U.S. Focus List holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-10-14 (RBC PAG "Guided Portfolio Large Cap Equity Grid", last updated October 14, 2026 (u.s._focus_list_current.pdf; Focus List names, weights and Alternatives), Gmail (sc.assistant80@gmail.com), "USFL and CFL equity grids" from stephen.k.chang@rbc.com, Oct 21, 2026 3:20 PM PT; matches the Oct 14, 2026 U.S. Focus List Change Report); List weight 2.50%. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLF (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
