XRT
Ss Spdr S&P Retail Etf
$88.80
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Thematic ETF · entry card
APPENDIX · XRT · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 75.7
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 15.4 + 9.0 = 24.4 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 21 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 75.7 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Up |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Up |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 52.8
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 2.3 / 30 |
| Structure | 19 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive but rolling over from >80th pctile | 6.2 / 25 |
| Band position | 5.3 / 20 |
| Raw | 52.8 (Neutral) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 52.8 Neutral |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (XRT close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 2 Early Up (+) → | +3.26% | +3.02% | Est. Up ≥ 90.31 (+1.7%) · Early Up ≥ 85.83 · Est. Down < 85.37 |
| Trend · XLY | 1 Established Up (−) → | +1.26% | -0.63% | Est. Up ≥ 87.73 (-1.2%) · Est. Down < 87.27 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +2.62% | +1.76% | Est. Up ≥ 87.02 (-2.0%) · Est. Down < 66.74 |
| Trading · XLY | 4 Early Down (−) → | -0.91% | -1.20% | Est. Up ≥ 89.89 (+1.2%) · Est. Down < 86.43 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 88.80)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R2 | 93.52–96.12 | +5.3% to +8.2% | wk high 08-07 93.52 · 61.8% 94.19 · 50% 96.12 |
| R1 | 89.01–91.65 | +0.2% to +3.2% | wk high 04-24 89.01 · wk high 06-19 89.10 · wk high ’25-12-12 89.28 · wk high ’25-09-19 89.41 · wk high 02-20 90.05 · wk high 07-17 91.57 · wk high 01-23 91.65 |
| S1 | 84.71–86.36 | -2.7% to -4.6% | wk low 08-21 86.36 · wk high ’25-10-31 86.21 · wk low 07-24 85.87 · wk high 05-29 85.86 · wk low 01-30 85.68 · … +1 more · 40-wk SMA 85.52 · wk low ’25-09-26 85.36 · wk low 01-02 85.09 · wk high 2024-11-29 84.84 · wk high 2024-12-13 84.71 |
| S2 | 80.88–83.32 | -6.2% to -8.9% | wk high ’25-07-25 83.32 · wk low ’25-09-05 83.11 · wk high ’25-11-14 82.32 · wk low 06-05 82.08 · wk high ’25-01-31 81.98 · wk high ’25-07-11 81.70 · wk low 10-02 81.58 · wk high ’25-01-10 80.91 · wk low ’25-10-10 80.88 |
| S3 | 77.24–79.61 | -10.3% to -13.0% | wk low 2024-12-20 79.61 · wk high ’25-06-13 79.39 · wk high 2024-10-18 78.68 · wk low ’25-11-07 78.33 · wk low 03-20 78.29 · wk low ’25-07-18 78.01 · wk low 04-03 77.92 · wk low 05-22 77.86 · wk low ’25-11-21 77.24 |
| ATH | 104.31 | +17.5% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 84.71 (-4.6%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 80.88–83.32.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 80.88 (-8.9%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 77.24–79.61.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 90.31 (+1.7%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 85.83 · Est. Down < 85.37 (-3.9%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 87.02 · Est. Down < 66.74.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Thematic ETFs holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-10-20 (Thematic ETFs bot list: /home/box/thematic-etf-scorecard/latest.json (built 2026-10-21 07:51 PT, from PortfolioDashboardBBG.xlsx MASTER!CK6 'THEMATIC ETFS' block; live at https://skc-thematic-etfs.pages.dev/)); Theme: Retail. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLY (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
