XME
Ss Spdr S&P Metals Mining
$96.76
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Thematic ETF · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $106.86–109.05 | +10.4% to +12.7% | wk low 09-18, wk low 05-22, wk high ’25-12-26 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $96.37 | -0.4% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $69.55 | -28.1% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $103.03 | +6.5% | top of R1 (50% retr., wk low 03-20) |
APPENDIX · XME · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 8.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 0.0 + 0.0 = 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 5 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 8.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 21.2
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 0 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost) | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 18.7 / 20 |
| Raw | 21.2 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 21.2 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (XME close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -8.52% | -2.06% | Est. Up ≥ 107.68 (+11.3%) · Est. Down < 105.90 |
| Trend · XLB | 5 Established Down (−) → | -11.89% | -6.42% | Est. Up ≥ 112.30 (+16.1%) · Early Up ≥ 111.88 · Est. Down < 111.28 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -1.17% | -2.33% | Est. Up ≥ 105.41 (+8.9%) · Early Up ≥ 98.17 · Est. Down < 97.64 |
| Trading · XLB | 5 Established Down (−) → | -4.39% | -4.35% | Early Up ≥ 101.16 · Est. Down < 100.62 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 96.76)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 111.09–114.29 | +14.8% to +18.1% | wk high ’25-10-17 111.09 · wk low 02-20 111.70 · 40-wk SMA 112.02 · wk low 06-12 112.13 · wk high 09-25 112.44 · wk low 08-21 112.85 · 200-day SMA 112.93 · wk low 05-01 114.29 |
| R2 | 106.86–109.05 | +10.4% to +12.7% | wk low 09-18 106.86 · wk low 05-22 108.70 · wk high ’25-12-26 108.92 · wk high 10-09 109.05 |
| R1 | 100.38–103.03 | +3.7% to +6.5% | 50% 100.38 · wk low 03-20 100.72 · wk low 10-02 101.89 · wk low 04-03 102.44 · wk low 01-02 103.03 |
| S1 | 96.37–96.43 | -0.3% to -0.4% | wk low 07-17 96.43 · wk low 07-31 96.37 |
| S2 | 69.55–71.07 | -26.6% to -28.1% | wk low ’25-08-01 71.07 · wk high 2024-11-08 70.49 · wk high 2024-11-29 69.55 |
| S3 | 63.16–65.09 | -32.7% to -34.7% | wk low ’25-06-27 65.09 · wk low 2024-11-08 63.16 |
| ATH | 135.68 | +40.2% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 96.37 (-0.4%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 69.55–71.07.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 69.55 (-28.1%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 63.16–65.09.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 107.68 (+11.3%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 107.68 · Est. Down < 105.90 (+9.4%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 105.41 · Early Up ≥ 98.17 · Est. Down < 97.64.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Thematic ETFs holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-10-20 (Thematic ETFs bot list: /home/box/thematic-etf-scorecard/latest.json (built 2026-10-21 07:51 PT, from PortfolioDashboardBBG.xlsx MASTER!CK6 'THEMATIC ETFS' block; live at https://skc-thematic-etfs.pages.dev/)); Theme: Metals & Mining. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLB (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
