XLY
Ss Consumer Disc Select Sect
$117.33
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Thematic ETF · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $121.13–123.69 | +3.2% to +5.4% | wk high 05-08, wk high ’25-10-03, wk high ’25-11-07 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $112.75 | -3.9% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $110.19 | -6.1% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $120.44 | +2.7% | top of R1 (wk low ’25-09-26, wk low 01-02) |
APPENDIX · XLY · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 65.2
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 15.4 + 7.7 = 23.1 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 16 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 65.2 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Up |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down; Up pending 1/2 |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 80.7
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 19 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive & rising | 25.0 / 25 |
| Band position | 6.7 / 20 |
| Raw | 80.7 (Established Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 80.7 Established Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (XLY close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 2 Early Up (+) ↑ | +1.98% | +3.67% | Est. Up ≥ 119.27 (+1.7%) · Early Up ≥ 113.17 · Est. Down < 112.56 |
| Trend · ^GSPC | 2 Early Up (+) ↑ | +1.98% | +3.67% | Est. Up ≥ 119.27 (+1.7%) · Early Up ≥ 113.17 · Est. Down < 112.56 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +3.56% | +2.99% | Est. Up ≥ 113.89 (-2.9%) · Est. Down < 91.21 |
| Trading · ^GSPC | 1 Established Up (+) → | +3.56% | +2.99% | Est. Up ≥ 113.89 (-2.9%) · Est. Down < 91.21 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 117.33)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R2 | 121.13–123.69 | +3.2% to +5.4% | wk high 05-08 121.13 · wk high ’25-10-03 121.35 · wk high ’25-11-07 121.50 · wk high ’25-09-19 121.70 · wk high 04-17 121.85 · wk high 05-29 122.19 · wk high ’25-12-19 123.63 · wk high 01-30 123.69 |
| R1 | 117.57–120.44 | +0.2% to +2.7% | wk low ’25-09-26 117.57 · wk low 01-02 117.71 · wk high ’25-01-31 117.93 · wk low 01-23 118.90 · wk high 07-03 119.21 · wk high 06-19 119.51 · wk high 2024-12-20 120.14 · wk high 08-07 120.44 |
| S1 | 112.75–116.13 | -1.0% to -3.9% | wk low 05-01 116.13 · 200-day SMA 115.51 · wk low 02-06 115.40 · 40-wk SMA 115.22 · 50% 114.91 · … +4 more · wk high ’25-08-01 113.67 · wk low 06-12 113.38 · wk high 09-25 113.29 · wk low 06-26 113.13 · wk low 2024-12-20 112.75 |
| S2 | 110.19–112.53 | -4.1% to -6.1% | 61.8% 112.53 · wk low ’25-11-21 110.46 · wk high 2024-11-15 110.19 |
| S3 | 106.19–109.15 | -7.0% to -9.5% | wk low ’25-01-17 109.15 · wk high ’25-05-23 109.09 · wk high ’25-06-13 108.89 · wk low 07-24 108.29 · wk low 10-02 107.99 · wk low ’25-08-01 107.38 · wk low 2024-11-22 106.19 |
| ATH | 125.01 | +6.5% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 112.75 (-3.9%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 110.19–112.53.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 110.19 (-6.1%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 106.19–109.15.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 119.27 (+1.7%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 113.17 · Est. Down < 112.56 (-4.1%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 113.89 · Est. Down < 91.21.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Thematic ETFs holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-10-20 (Thematic ETFs bot list: /home/box/thematic-etf-scorecard/latest.json (built 2026-10-21 07:51 PT, from PortfolioDashboardBBG.xlsx MASTER!CK6 'THEMATIC ETFS' block; live at https://skc-thematic-etfs.pages.dev/)); Theme: Consumer Discretionary. Sector RS dropped (no distinct sector ETF), Trend score rescaled from 50 to 100. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and ^GSPC (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
