XLU
St Sr Utl Sl Se Spdr Etf-Usd
$43.42
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Thematic ETF · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $45.18–46.32 | +4.1% to +6.7% | wk high ’25-11-14, wk high ’25-11-28, wk high 05-29 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $42.30 | -2.6% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $41.03 | -5.5% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $44.71 | +3.0% | top of R1 (wk low 05-22, 61.8% retr.) |
APPENDIX · XLU · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 55.2
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 15.4 + 7.7 = 23.1 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 10 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 55.2 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Neutral |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down; Neutral pending 1/2 |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Neutral. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 85.6
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 14 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive & rising | 25.0 / 25 |
| Band position | 16.6 / 20 |
| Raw | 85.6 (Established Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 85.6 Established Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (XLU close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 2 Early Up (+) ↑ | +2.40% | +3.97% | Est. Up ≥ 47.92 (+10.4%) · Early Up ≥ 42.30 · Est. Down < 42.07 |
| Trend · ^GSPC | 2 Early Up (+) ↑ | +2.40% | +3.97% | Est. Up ≥ 47.92 (+10.4%) · Early Up ≥ 42.30 · Est. Down < 42.07 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +3.53% | +2.66% | Est. Up ≥ 42.13 (-3.0%) · Est. Down < 34.63 |
| Trading · ^GSPC | 1 Established Up (+) → | +3.53% | +2.66% | Est. Up ≥ 42.13 (-3.0%) · Est. Down < 34.63 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 43.42)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 46.63–47.80 | +7.4% to +10.1% | wk high 07-24 46.63 · wk high ’25-10-17 46.88 · wk high 05-01 47.30 · wk high 03-20 47.64 · wk high 04-10 47.71 · ATH 02-27 47.80 |
| R2 | 45.18–46.32 | +4.1% to +6.7% | wk high ’25-11-14 45.18 · wk high ’25-11-28 45.35 · wk high 05-29 45.64 · wk low 03-06 45.96 · wk high 07-10 46.32 |
| R1 | 43.53–44.71 | +0.3% to +3.0% | wk low 05-22 43.53 · 61.8% 43.69 · wk high 09-11 43.71 · wk low ’25-11-21 43.76 · wk high 01-16 43.82 · … +2 more · 200-day SMA 44.30 · wk low 03-20 44.43 · 50% 44.48 · wk high 08-21 44.65 · wk low 04-24 44.71 |
| S1 | 42.30–43.39 | -0.1% to -2.6% | wk high 01-02 43.39 · wk high ’25-08-22 43.36 · wk low 06-05 43.07 · wk low 08-07 42.95 · wk low ’25-08-15 42.54 · wk low ’25-12-12 42.42 · wk low 01-23 42.30 |
| S2 | 41.03–42.03 | -3.2% to -5.5% | wk low ’25-12-26 42.03 · wk low 09-04 41.86 · wk low 01-09 41.74 · wk low ’25-08-01 41.71 · wk high ’25-06-06 41.58 · wk high ’25-05-23 41.53 · wk high 2024-10-18 41.25 · wk low ’25-09-12 41.15 · wk high ’25-06-20 41.13 · wk high 2024-10-04 41.03 |
| S3 | 39.06–40.26 | -7.3% to -10.0% | wk high ’25-02-21 40.26 · wk high ’25-01-24 40.22 · wk low ’25-07-11 40.17 · wk high ’25-04-04 40.10 · wk low ’25-06-20 39.89 · wk high ’25-03-21 39.83 · wk low ’25-05-16 39.06 |
| ATH | 47.80 | +10.1% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 42.30 (-2.6%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 41.03–42.03.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 41.03 (-5.5%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 39.06–40.26.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 47.92 (+10.4%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 42.30 · Est. Down < 42.07 (-3.1%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 42.13 · Est. Down < 34.63.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Thematic ETFs holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-10-20 (Thematic ETFs bot list: /home/box/thematic-etf-scorecard/latest.json (built 2026-10-21 07:51 PT, from PortfolioDashboardBBG.xlsx MASTER!CK6 'THEMATIC ETFS' block; live at https://skc-thematic-etfs.pages.dev/)); Theme: Utilities. Sector RS dropped (no distinct sector ETF), Trend score rescaled from 50 to 100. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and ^GSPC (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
