XLP
Ss Consumer Staples Sel Sect
$88.95
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Thematic ETF · entry card
APPENDIX · XLP · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 100.0
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 20.0 + 10.0 = 30.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 30 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 100.0 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Up |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Up |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✔ No lower high vs cycle high 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 79.2
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 25 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive but rolling over from >80th pctile | 6.2 / 25 |
| Band position | 18.0 / 20 |
| Raw | 79.2 (Established Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 79.2 Established Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (XLP close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +6.26% | +3.12% | Est. Up ≥ 84.22 (-5.3%) · Est. Down < 81.34 |
| Trend · ^GSPC | 1 Established Up (+) → | +6.26% | +3.12% | Est. Up ≥ 84.22 (-5.3%) · Est. Down < 81.34 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +2.48% | +2.89% | Est. Up ≥ 87.21 (-2.0%) · Est. Down < 67.75 |
| Trading · ^GSPC | 1 Established Up (+) → | +2.48% | +2.89% | Est. Up ≥ 87.21 (-2.0%) · Est. Down < 67.75 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 88.95)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R1 | 90.14–90.99 | +1.3% to +2.3% | wk high 02-20 90.14 · ATH 11-02 90.99 |
| S1 | 86.35–88.78 | -0.2% to -2.9% | wk high 07-31 88.78 · wk high 08-28 87.47 · wk high 07-17 87.43 · wk high 05-22 86.70 · wk high 06-19 86.35 |
| S2 | 83.19–85.54 | -3.8% to -6.5% | 50% 85.54 · wk high 05-01 85.06 · wk high 09-18 84.89 · 40-wk SMA 84.71 · 200-day SMA 84.54 · … +2 more · wk high ’25-08-22 83.90 · wk low 08-07 83.86 · wk high 04-10 83.64 · wk high 2024-11-29 83.30 · wk high 2024-10-18 83.19 |
| S3 | 80.46–82.83 | -6.9% to -9.5% | wk low 05-15 82.83 · wk low 07-24 82.81 · wk high ’25-04-25 82.71 · wk high ’25-07-04 82.48 · wk low 06-26 82.15 · wk high ’25-07-25 81.86 · wk low 06-05 81.48 · wk low 03-27 80.51 · wk low 2024-10-11 80.47 · wk low 04-17 80.46 |
| ATH | 90.99 | +2.3% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 86.35 (-2.9%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 83.19–85.54.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 83.19 (-6.5%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 80.46–82.83.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 84.22 (-5.3%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 84.22 · Est. Down < 81.34 (-8.6%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 87.21 · Est. Down < 67.75.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Thematic ETFs holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-10-20 (Thematic ETFs bot list: /home/box/thematic-etf-scorecard/latest.json (built 2026-10-21 07:51 PT, from PortfolioDashboardBBG.xlsx MASTER!CK6 'THEMATIC ETFS' block; live at https://skc-thematic-etfs.pages.dev/)); Theme: Consumer Staples. Sector RS dropped (no distinct sector ETF), Trend score rescaled from 50 to 100. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and ^GSPC (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
