XLK
Ss Technology Select Sector
$176.51
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Thematic ETF · entry card
APPENDIX · XLK · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 41.7
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 0.0 + 0.0 = 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 25 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 41.7 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✔ No lower high vs cycle high 5/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 25.7
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 13 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 10.2 / 20 |
| Raw | 25.7 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 25.7 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (XLK close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -2.64% | -1.13% | Est. Up ≥ 185.27 (+5.0%) · Est. Down < 184.28 |
| Trend · ^GSPC | 5 Established Down (−) → | -2.64% | -1.13% | Est. Up ≥ 185.27 (+5.0%) · Est. Down < 184.28 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -3.22% | -4.61% | Est. Up ≥ 216.07 (+22.4%) · Early Up ≥ 182.56 · Est. Down < 181.58 |
| Trading · ^GSPC | 5 Established Down (−) → | -3.22% | -4.61% | Est. Up ≥ 216.07 (+22.4%) · Early Up ≥ 182.56 · Est. Down < 181.58 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 176.51)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 198.73–203.25 | +12.6% to +15.1% | wk high 06-05 198.73 · ATH 10-06 203.25 |
| R2 | 191.75–194.30 | +8.6% to +10.1% | wk high 08-21 191.75 · wk high 06-26 194.30 |
| R1 | 178.82–182.08 | +1.3% to +3.2% | wk low 08-28 178.82 · wk low 09-18 182.08 |
| S1 | 169.84–172.88 | -2.1% to -3.8% | wk low 06-12 172.88 · wk low 07-17 171.34 · wk low 05-22 170.83 · 40-wk SMA 170.13 · 200-day SMA 169.84 |
| S2 | 164.97–166.46 | -5.7% to -6.5% | wk low 07-31 166.46 · 50% 164.97 |
| S3 | 152.99–155.93 | -11.7% to -13.3% | 61.8% 155.93 · wk high ’25-10-31 152.99 |
| ATH | 203.25 | +15.1% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 169.84 (-3.8%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 164.97–166.46.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 164.97 (-6.5%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 152.99–155.93.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 185.27 (+5.0%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 185.27 · Est. Down < 184.28 (+4.4%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 216.07 · Early Up ≥ 182.56 · Est. Down < 181.58.
Sluymer context
- 2026-10-06 chartbook: “XLK Technology ETF – Q3 consolidation resolving to the upside with the next extension level at 219.”
Notes & caveats
Thematic ETFs holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-10-20 (Thematic ETFs bot list: /home/box/thematic-etf-scorecard/latest.json (built 2026-10-21 07:51 PT, from PortfolioDashboardBBG.xlsx MASTER!CK6 'THEMATIC ETFS' block; live at https://skc-thematic-etfs.pages.dev/)); Theme: Technology. Sector RS dropped (no distinct sector ETF), Trend score rescaled from 50 to 100. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and ^GSPC (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
