XLI
Ss Industrial Select Sector
$171.32
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Thematic ETF · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $177.23–179.31 | +3.4% to +4.7% | wk low 06-26, wk high 05-08, wk high 02-20 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $166.18 | -3.0% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $158.46 | -7.5% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $175.96 | +2.7% | top of R1 (50% retr., wk high 10-09) |
APPENDIX · XLI · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 28.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 2.0 + 1.0 = 3.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 14 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 28.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 69.0
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 8 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive & rising | 25.0 / 25 |
| Band position | 6.0 / 20 |
| Raw | 69.0 (Early Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 69.0 Early Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (XLI close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (+) → | -3.37% | +0.83% | Est. Up ≥ 196.99 (+15.0%) · Early Up ≥ 173.09 · Est. Down < 172.17 |
| Trend · ^GSPC | 5 Established Down (+) → | -3.37% | +0.83% | Est. Up ≥ 196.99 (+15.0%) · Early Up ≥ 173.09 · Est. Down < 172.17 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) ↑ | +3.49% | +2.71% | Est. Up ≥ 166.12 (-3.0%) · Est. Down < 149.69 |
| Trading · ^GSPC | 1 Established Up (+) ↑ | +3.49% | +2.71% | Est. Up ≥ 166.12 (-3.0%) · Est. Down < 149.69 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 171.32)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 186.09–188.19 | +8.6% to +9.8% | wk high 06-26 186.09 · wk high 07-10 186.45 · ATH 08-05 188.19 |
| R2 | 177.23–179.31 | +3.4% to +4.7% | wk low 06-26 177.23 · wk high 05-08 177.72 · wk high 02-20 178.22 · wk high 03-06 179.31 |
| R1 | 171.58–175.96 | +0.2% to +2.7% | 50% 171.58 · wk high 10-09 172.34 · 200-day SMA 173.35 · 40-wk SMA 173.56 · wk high 04-17 175.13 · wk low 07-31 175.96 |
| S1 | 166.18–169.45 | -1.1% to -3.0% | wk low 06-12 169.45 · wk low 05-01 169.23 · wk low 05-22 168.11 · 61.8% 167.67 · wk low 09-18 167.49 · wk high 01-16 167.20 · wk low 10-02 166.18 |
| S2 | 158.46–162.97 | -4.9% to -7.5% | wk low 10-23 162.97 · wk high ’25-12-12 158.46 |
| S3 | 154.20–156.99 | -8.4% to -10.0% | wk high ’25-10-31 156.99 · wk low 04-03 156.08 · wk high ’25-10-10 155.94 · wk high ’25-11-14 155.54 · wk high ’25-08-01 155.15 · wk low 01-02 154.98 · wk high ’25-08-22 154.20 |
| ATH | 188.19 | +9.8% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 166.18 (-3.0%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 158.46–162.97.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 158.46 (-7.5%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 154.20–156.99.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 196.99 (+15.0%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 173.09 · Est. Down < 172.17 (+0.5%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 166.12 · Est. Down < 149.69.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Thematic ETFs holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-10-20 (Thematic ETFs bot list: /home/box/thematic-etf-scorecard/latest.json (built 2026-10-21 07:51 PT, from PortfolioDashboardBBG.xlsx MASTER!CK6 'THEMATIC ETFS' block; live at https://skc-thematic-etfs.pages.dev/)); Theme: Industrials. Sector RS dropped (no distinct sector ETF), Trend score rescaled from 50 to 100. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and ^GSPC (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
