XHB
Ss Spdr S&P Homebldrs Etf
$101.98
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Thematic ETF · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $105.47–108.36 | +3.4% to +6.3% | wk low 07-10, wk high 05-29, wk low 01-30 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $98.66 | -3.3% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $95.18 | -6.7% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $105.02 | +3.0% | top of R1 (wk low ’25-11-07, wk high ’25-05-16) |
APPENDIX · XHB · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 30.0
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 12.0 + 1.0 = 13.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 5 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 30.0 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 66.6
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 9.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 5 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive & rising | 25.0 / 25 |
| Band position | 7.6 / 20 |
| Raw | 66.6 (Early Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 66.6 Early Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (XHB close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 3 Neutral (+) ↑ | -0.18% | +7.50% | Est. Up ≥ 117.74 (+15.5%) · Early Up ≥ 100.84 · Est. Down < 100.30 |
| Trend · XLY | 5 Established Down (+) → | -2.08% | +3.69% | Est. Up ≥ 114.12 (+11.9%) · Early Up ≥ 103.05 · Est. Down < 102.50 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +5.43% | +2.72% | Est. Up ≥ 97.40 (-4.5%) · Est. Down < 71.39 |
| Trading · XLY | 1 Established Up (−) ↑ | +1.83% | -0.27% | Est. Up ≥ 100.59 (-1.4%) · Est. Down < 88.98 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 101.98)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 109.05–111.95 | +6.9% to +9.8% | wk low ’25-09-26 109.05 · wk high ’25-12-05 110.30 · wk high ’25-10-24 110.80 · wk high 08-07 111.59 · 50% 111.74 · wk low ’25-09-05 111.76 · wk high 04-24 111.80 · wk low 2024-11-01 111.95 |
| R2 | 105.47–108.36 | +3.4% to +6.3% | wk low 07-10 105.47 · wk high 05-29 105.72 · wk low 01-30 107.30 · wk high ’25-07-11 107.34 · wk high ’25-11-14 107.38 · wk high ’25-07-25 108.25 · 61.8% 108.36 |
| R1 | 102.12–105.02 | +0.1% to +3.0% | wk low ’25-11-07 102.12 · wk high ’25-05-16 102.36 · wk low 01-09 102.71 · wk low 07-31 103.12 · wk low ’25-10-10 103.39 · wk high ’25-03-14 103.73 · wk low 2024-12-20 104.19 · 40-wk SMA 104.92 · 200-day SMA 105.02 |
| S1 | 98.66–101.49 | -0.5% to -3.3% | wk low ’25-01-17 101.49 · wk high ’25-03-28 100.66 · wk high 09-25 99.67 · wk high ’25-06-13 99.39 · wk low ’25-07-18 99.04 · wk low ’25-11-21 98.66 |
| S2 | 95.18–97.65 | -4.2% to -6.7% | wk high ’25-05-02 97.65 · wk low 03-20 95.46 · wk low 04-03 95.40 · wk low ’25-03-14 95.18 |
| S3 | 91.71–93.57 | -8.2% to -10.1% | wk low 05-22 93.57 · wk low ’25-06-20 92.86 · wk low 10-16 91.87 · wk low ’25-06-06 91.71 |
| ATH | 126.09 | +23.6% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 98.66 (-3.3%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 95.18–97.65.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 95.18 (-6.7%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 91.71–93.57.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 117.74 (+15.5%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 100.84 · Est. Down < 100.30 (-1.6%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 97.40 · Est. Down < 71.39.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Thematic ETFs holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-10-20 (Thematic ETFs bot list: /home/box/thematic-etf-scorecard/latest.json (built 2026-10-21 07:51 PT, from PortfolioDashboardBBG.xlsx MASTER!CK6 'THEMATIC ETFS' block; live at https://skc-thematic-etfs.pages.dev/)); Theme: Homebuilders. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLY (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
