$40.57
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Thematic ETF · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $42.13–42.65 | +3.8% to +5.1% | wk low 04-03, wk low 09-11, wk low 07-31 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $38.28 | -5.6% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $35.32 | -12.9% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $41.86 | +3.2% | top of R1 (wk high ’25-12-26, wk high ’25-10-17) |
APPENDIX · UFO · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 13.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 2.0 + 1.0 = 3.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 5 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 13.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 30.2
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 18.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 5 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost) | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 4.7 / 20 |
| Raw | 30.2 (Early Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 30.2 Early Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (UFO close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (+) → | -6.48% | +3.52% | Est. Up ≥ 51.07 (+25.9%) · Early Up ≥ 43.06 · Est. Down < 42.83 |
| Trend · XLI | 5 Established Down (+) → | -3.21% | +2.66% | Est. Up ≥ 43.66 (+7.6%) · Early Up ≥ 41.75 · Est. Down < 41.53 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (−) ↑ | +2.32% | -0.81% | Est. Up ≥ 39.81 (-1.9%) · Est. Down < 38.11 |
| Trading · XLI | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -1.14% | -3.43% | Est. Up ≥ 43.34 (+6.8%) · Early Up ≥ 41.17 · Est. Down < 40.95 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 40.57)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 43.54–44.75 | +7.3% to +10.3% | wk low 03-13 43.54 · wk high 09-25 44.44 · wk high 09-11 44.60 · wk high 10-09 44.75 |
| R2 | 42.13–42.65 | +3.8% to +5.1% | wk low 04-03 42.13 · wk low 09-11 42.42 · wk low 07-31 42.65 |
| R1 | 40.68–41.86 | +0.3% to +3.2% | wk high ’25-12-26 40.68 · wk high ’25-10-17 41.19 · wk low 02-06 41.86 |
| S1 | 38.28–38.31 | -5.6% to -5.6% | wk low 10-16 38.31 · wk low 01-02 38.28 |
| S2 | 35.32–36.41 | -10.3% to -12.9% | wk low ’25-10-24 36.41 · wk low ’25-12-19 35.32 |
| S3 | 30.89–31.74 | -21.8% to -23.9% | wk high ’25-07-25 31.74 · wk high ’25-08-08 31.15 · wk low ’25-11-21 30.89 |
| ATH | 68.21 | +68.1% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 38.28 (-5.6%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 35.32–36.41.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 35.32 (-12.9%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 30.89–31.74.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 51.07 (+25.9%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 43.06 · Est. Down < 42.83 (+5.6%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 39.81 · Est. Down < 38.11.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Thematic ETFs holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-10-20 (Thematic ETFs bot list: /home/box/thematic-etf-scorecard/latest.json (built 2026-10-21 07:51 PT, from PortfolioDashboardBBG.xlsx MASTER!CK6 'THEMATIC ETFS' block; live at https://skc-thematic-etfs.pages.dev/)); Theme: Space. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLI (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
