$43.34
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Thematic ETF · entry card
APPENDIX · TAN · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 0.0
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 0.0 + 0.0 = 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 0 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 0.0 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 0/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 35.1
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 15.4 + 7.7 / 30 |
| Structure | 0 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost) | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 9.5 / 20 |
| Raw | 35.1 (Early Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 35.1 Early Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (TAN close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -13.80% | -2.94% | Early Up ≥ 46.22 · Est. Down < 45.98 |
| Trend · XLU | 5 Established Down (−) → | -15.78% | -6.64% | Early Up ≥ 47.59 · Est. Down < 47.34 |
| Trading · S&P | 2 Early Up (+) ↑ | +5.33% | +7.35% | Est. Up ≥ 41.44 (-4.4%) · Early Up ≥ 41.22 · Est. Down < 41.00 |
| Trading · XLU | 2 Early Up (+) ↑ | +1.69% | +4.57% | Est. Up ≥ 50.59 (+16.7%) · Early Up ≥ 42.61 · Est. Down < 42.38 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 43.34)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 49.01–49.88 | +13.1% to +15.1% | wk low 01-02 49.01 · wk high ’25-10-17 49.60 · wk high 09-11 49.62 · wk high ’25-12-12 49.88 |
| R2 | 46.81–47.26 | +8.0% to +9.0% | wk high 09-25 46.81 · wk low 07-31 47.26 |
| R1 | 43.80–45.03 | +1.1% to +3.9% | wk high 2024-10-04 43.80 · wk low ’25-11-21 44.45 · wk high ’25-09-05 44.49 · wk high 10-09 44.77 · wk low ’25-10-24 45.03 |
| S1 | 41.33–42.46 | -2.0% to -4.6% | wk low 10-02 42.46 · wk high 2024-11-08 41.88 · wk low ’25-09-19 41.33 |
| S2 | 39.75–40.35 | -6.9% to -8.3% | wk high ’25-07-25 40.35 · wk low ’25-09-05 39.75 |
| S3 | 36.64–37.67 | -13.1% to -15.5% | wk high 2024-12-06 37.67 · wk low ’25-07-18 37.60 · wk high ’25-01-10 37.12 · wk low 2024-10-25 36.64 |
| ATH | 125.98 | +190.7% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 41.33 (-4.6%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 39.75–40.35.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 39.75 (-8.3%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 36.64–37.67.
- Trend vs S&P: above its 16-wk avg ≥ 46.22 · Est. Down < 45.98 (+6.1%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 41.44 · Early Up ≥ 41.22 · Est. Down < 41.00.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Thematic ETFs holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-10-20 (Thematic ETFs bot list: /home/box/thematic-etf-scorecard/latest.json (built 2026-10-21 07:51 PT, from PortfolioDashboardBBG.xlsx MASTER!CK6 'THEMATIC ETFS' block; live at https://skc-thematic-etfs.pages.dev/)); Theme: Solar. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLU (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
