$9.23
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Thematic ETF · entry card
APPENDIX · SOLZ · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 32.5
| Short history (85 wks): RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 4.6 + 2.3 |
| Structure (computable checks) | 11 / 25 |
| Score = points earned × 100 / 55 computable points | 32.5 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays, on the history that exists) | confirmed Up; Down pending 1/2 |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · – Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA n/a (short history) · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Down. |
Scores · Trading 32.7
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 12 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 18.2 / 20 |
| Raw | 32.7 (Early Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 32.7 Early Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (SOLZ close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 4 Early Down (−) ↓ | -1.21% | -8.12% | Est. Up ≥ 9.58 (+3.8%) · Est. Down < 6.46 |
| Trend · ^GSPC | 4 Early Down (−) ↓ | -1.21% | -8.12% | Est. Up ≥ 9.58 (+3.8%) · Est. Down < 6.46 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -6.75% | -4.44% | Early Up ≥ 9.91 · Est. Down < 9.86 |
| Trading · ^GSPC | 5 Established Down (−) → | -6.75% | -4.44% | Early Up ≥ 9.91 · Est. Down < 9.86 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 9.23)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 11.97–12.26 | +29.7% to +32.9% | wk low ’25-12-19 11.97 · wk high 10-02 12.26 |
| R2 | 9.93–10.01 | +7.6% to +8.5% | wk high 05-15 9.93 · wk low 10-16 10.01 |
| R1 | 9.53–9.71 | +3.3% to +5.2% | wk low 09-18 9.53 · wk high 03-06 9.55 · wk high 03-20 9.71 |
| S1 | 9.02–9.19 | -0.4% to -2.3% | wk high 04-17 9.19 · 200-day SMA 9.02 |
| S2 | 8.18–8.29 | -10.2% to -11.4% | wk high 07-10 8.29 · wk low 05-01 8.18 |
| S3 | 7.64–7.78 | -15.7% to -17.2% | wk low 02-13 7.78 · wk low 04-03 7.73 · wk low 02-27 7.68 · wk high 06-19 7.64 |
| ATH | 27.12 | +193.9% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 9.02 (-2.3%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 8.18–8.29.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 8.18 (-11.4%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 7.64–7.78.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 9.58 (+3.8%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 9.58 · Est. Down < 6.46 (-30.0%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Early Up ≥ 9.91 · Est. Down < 9.86.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Thematic ETFs holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-10-20 (Thematic ETFs bot list: /home/box/thematic-etf-scorecard/latest.json (built 2026-10-21 07:51 PT, from PortfolioDashboardBBG.xlsx MASTER!CK6 'THEMATIC ETFS' block; live at https://skc-thematic-etfs.pages.dev/)); Theme: Solana. Sector RS dropped (no distinct sector ETF), Trend score rescaled from 50 to 100. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and ^GSPC (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Short history (85 wks): under the 104 weekly bars of a full card. Checks that need more history (Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA) are left out of both the points earned and the points possible, and the score is rescaled to 0–100 (55 points computable). Trend shows N/A under 10 weekly bars or when fewer than 30 points can be computed. The 2-Friday confirmation uses the history that exists. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
