SHLD
Global X Defense Tech Etf
$63.38
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Thematic ETF · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $66.70–68.10 | +5.2% to +7.4% | wk high ’25-12-26, 40-wk SMA, 200-day SMA |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $61.36 | -3.2% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $59.09 | -6.8% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $65.30 | +3.0% | top of R1 (wk high 09-18, wk high ’25-08-08) |
APPENDIX · SHLD · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 50.7
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 15.4 + 10.0 = 25.4 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 5 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 50.7 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Neutral |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down; Neutral pending 1/2 |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✖ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 0/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Neutral. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 67.8
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 18.0 + 2.3 / 30 |
| Structure | 14 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive & rising | 25.0 / 25 |
| Band position | 8.5 / 20 |
| Raw | 67.8 (Early Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 67.8 Early Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (SHLD close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 2 Early Up (+) ↑ | +1.46% | +4.83% | Est. Up ≥ 63.16 (-0.3%) · Est. Down < 58.50 |
| Trend · XLI | 1 Established Up (+) → | +4.95% | +3.96% | Est. Up ≥ 61.26 (-3.3%) · Est. Down < 48.57 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (−) → | +3.04% | -0.53% | Est. Up ≥ 61.89 (-2.4%) · Est. Down < 46.90 |
| Trading · XLI | 4 Early Down (−) ↓ | -0.42% | -3.15% | Est. Up ≥ 64.00 (+1.0%) · Est. Down < 54.54 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 63.38)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 68.86–70.72 | +8.6% to +11.6% | wk high ’25-11-07 68.86 · wk high 05-08 69.03 · wk low 02-13 70.72 |
| R2 | 66.70–68.10 | +5.2% to +7.4% | wk high ’25-12-26 66.70 · 40-wk SMA 66.76 · 200-day SMA 67.15 · 50% 67.82 · wk low 04-03 67.96 · wk high 05-29 68.10 |
| R1 | 63.60–65.30 | +0.3% to +3.0% | wk high 09-18 63.60 · wk high ’25-08-08 63.72 · wk low ’25-10-17 64.64 · wk low 01-02 64.77 · wk high 07-10 65.04 · 61.8% 65.30 |
| S1 | 61.36–62.81 | -0.9% to -3.2% | wk low ’25-12-19 62.81 · wk high ’25-07-18 62.44 · wk low 05-15 62.21 · wk low 06-12 61.80 · wk low ’25-09-05 61.44 · wk low 09-11 61.36 |
| S2 | 59.09–60.76 | -4.1% to -6.8% | wk high ’25-06-27 60.76 · wk low ’25-11-28 60.53 · wk low ’25-08-01 59.86 · wk low ’25-08-22 59.46 · wk low 07-24 59.09 |
| S3 | 57.14–58.46 | -7.8% to -9.8% | wk low 10-09 58.46 · wk low 06-26 57.89 · wk low ’25-06-27 57.14 |
| ATH | 78.49 | +23.8% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 61.36 (-3.2%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 59.09–60.76.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 59.09 (-6.8%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 57.14–58.46.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 63.16 (-0.3%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 63.16 · Est. Down < 58.50 (-7.7%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 61.89 · Est. Down < 46.90.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Thematic ETFs holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-10-20 (Thematic ETFs bot list: /home/box/thematic-etf-scorecard/latest.json (built 2026-10-21 07:51 PT, from PortfolioDashboardBBG.xlsx MASTER!CK6 'THEMATIC ETFS' block; live at https://skc-thematic-etfs.pages.dev/)); Theme: Defense Tech. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLI (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Short history: the 200-wk SMA is not available, so that structure check scores 0. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
