PHO
Invesco Water Resources Etf
$76.15
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Thematic ETF · entry card
APPENDIX · PHO · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 93.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 20.0 + 10.0 = 30.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 26 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 93.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Up |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Up |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✔ No lower high vs cycle high 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 86.5
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 22 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive & rising | 25.0 / 25 |
| Band position | 9.4 / 20 |
| Raw | 86.5 (Established Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 86.5 Established Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (PHO close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) ↑ | +5.87% | +6.38% | Est. Up ≥ 69.83 (-8.3%) · Est. Down < 65.49 |
| Trend · XLU | 1 Established Up (+) → | +3.21% | +2.32% | Est. Up ≥ 72.00 (-5.4%) · Est. Down < 58.65 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +7.04% | +5.06% | Est. Up ≥ 71.57 (-6.0%) · Est. Down < 53.31 |
| Trading · XLU | 1 Established Up (+) ↑ | +3.42% | +2.34% | Est. Up ≥ 73.95 (-2.9%) · Est. Down < 63.42 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 76.15)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R1 | 76.78–76.78 | +0.8% to +0.8% | ATH 11-03 76.78 |
| S1 | 72.93–74.93 | -1.6% to -4.2% | wk high ’25-10-24 74.93 · wk high 01-23 74.74 · wk high 02-06 74.35 · wk high ’25-08-22 74.33 · wk high ’25-09-05 74.04 · wk high 08-07 73.77 · wk high 02-27 73.56 · wk high ’25-11-14 73.17 · wk high ’25-11-28 72.93 |
| S2 | 70.74–72.59 | -4.7% to -7.1% | wk high 2024-11-08 72.59 · wk high 2024-12-06 72.27 · wk high ’25-07-11 72.00 · wk low 02-13 71.88 · wk low 01-30 71.72 · … +1 more · wk high 2024-10-18 71.47 · wk high ’25-07-25 71.29 · wk low 08-21 70.83 · wk high 04-24 70.77 · wk low ’25-09-12 70.74 |
| S3 | 68.60–70.33 | -7.6% to -9.9% | wk high 07-17 70.33 · wk low ’25-09-26 70.27 · 50% 70.16 · wk low ’25-12-12 70.14 · wk low 01-02 70.11 · … +6 more · wk high ’25-01-31 69.02 · wk low ’25-07-18 69.00 · wk low 2024-10-11 68.95 · wk low 2024-11-22 68.85 · 61.8% 68.60 |
| ATH | 76.78 | +0.8% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 72.93 (-4.2%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 70.74–72.59.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 70.74 (-7.1%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 68.60–70.33.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 69.83 (-8.3%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 69.83 · Est. Down < 65.49 (-14.0%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 71.57 · Est. Down < 53.31.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Thematic ETFs holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-10-20 (Thematic ETFs bot list: /home/box/thematic-etf-scorecard/latest.json (built 2026-10-21 07:51 PT, from PortfolioDashboardBBG.xlsx MASTER!CK6 'THEMATIC ETFS' block; live at https://skc-thematic-etfs.pages.dev/)); Theme: Water. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLU (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
