PAVE
Global X Us Infrastructure
$54.83
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Thematic ETF · entry card
APPENDIX · PAVE · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 43.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 2.0 + 10.0 = 12.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 14 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 43.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 79.0
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 9.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 13 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive & rising | 25.0 / 25 |
| Band position | 12.0 / 20 |
| Raw | 79.0 (Established Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 79.0 Established Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (PAVE close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (+) → | -1.80% | +2.46% | Est. Up ≥ 60.43 (+10.2%) · Early Up ≥ 54.47 · Est. Down < 54.18 |
| Trend · XLI | 1 Established Up (+) ↑ | +1.62% | +1.62% | Est. Up ≥ 52.82 (-3.7%) · Est. Down < 51.18 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) ↑ | +4.69% | +2.64% | Est. Up ≥ 52.56 (-4.1%) · Est. Down < 45.98 |
| Trading · XLI | 1 Established Up (−) ↑ | +1.17% | -0.07% | Est. Up ≥ 54.35 (-0.9%) · Est. Down < 52.82 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 54.83)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R2 | 58.55–59.48 | +6.8% to +8.5% | wk high 05-08 58.55 · wk high 08-07 59.48 |
| R1 | 54.87–56.00 | +0.1% to +2.1% | 40-wk SMA 54.87 · wk low 07-31 54.90 · wk high 10-09 54.92 · wk low 06-05 55.20 · wk high 09-11 55.26 · wk low 07-10 55.50 · wk high 02-27 56.00 |
| S1 | 53.32–54.79 | -0.1% to -2.8% | 200-day SMA 54.79 · wk low 05-22 53.32 |
| S2 | 51.95–52.93 | -3.5% to -5.3% | 50% 52.93 · wk low 09-18 52.32 · wk high 01-23 52.22 · wk low 10-02 51.95 |
| S3 | 49.94–51.17 | -6.7% to -8.9% | 61.8% 51.17 · wk low 10-23 51.01 · wk low 01-30 50.32 · wk high ’25-12-12 49.94 |
| ATH | 60.43 | +10.2% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 53.32 (-2.8%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 51.95–52.93.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 51.95 (-5.3%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 49.94–51.17.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 60.43 (+10.2%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 54.47 · Est. Down < 54.18 (-1.2%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 52.56 · Est. Down < 45.98.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Thematic ETFs holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-10-20 (Thematic ETFs bot list: /home/box/thematic-etf-scorecard/latest.json (built 2026-10-21 07:51 PT, from PortfolioDashboardBBG.xlsx MASTER!CK6 'THEMATIC ETFS' block; live at https://skc-thematic-etfs.pages.dev/)); Theme: US Infrastructure. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLI (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
