OZEM
Roundhill Glp-1 & Wgt Ls Etf
$30.26
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Thematic ETF · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $31.79–32.64 | +5.1% to +7.9% | wk low 07-17, wk low ’25-11-28, 40-wk SMA |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $29.53 | -2.4% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $28.34 | -6.3% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $31.38 | +3.7% | top of R1 (wk low 09-18, wk low 07-31) |
APPENDIX · OZEM · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 5.0
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 2.0 + 1.0 = 3.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 0 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 5.0 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 0/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 66.6
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 5 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive & rising | 25.0 / 25 |
| Band position | 16.6 / 20 |
| Raw | 66.6 (Early Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 66.6 Early Up |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (OZEM close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (+) → | -2.14% | +6.05% | Est. Up ≥ 35.35 (+16.8%) · Early Up ≥ 31.35 · Est. Down < 31.19 |
| Trend · XLV | 5 Established Down (+) → | -11.06% | +0.32% | Early Up ≥ 34.43 · Est. Down < 34.25 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) ↑ | +2.92% | +1.69% | Est. Up ≥ 29.57 (-2.3%) · Est. Down < 23.72 |
| Trading · XLV | 5 Established Down (−) → | -0.76% | -0.30% | Est. Up ≥ 32.41 (+7.1%) · Early Up ≥ 30.58 · Est. Down < 30.42 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 30.26)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 32.79–33.70 | +8.4% to +11.4% | wk low 08-21 32.79 · wk low 02-06 33.28 · wk high ’25-11-28 33.70 |
| R2 | 31.79–32.64 | +5.1% to +7.9% | wk low 07-17 31.79 · wk low ’25-11-28 31.96 · 40-wk SMA 31.99 · 200-day SMA 32.09 · wk high 05-29 32.14 · wk high 04-03 32.15 · wk high 09-25 32.22 · wk high 05-15 32.30 · wk high 04-17 32.64 |
| R1 | 30.50–31.38 | +0.8% to +3.7% | wk low 09-18 30.50 · wk low 07-31 31.38 |
| S1 | 29.53–30.19 | -0.2% to -2.4% | 50% 30.19 · wk low 05-22 29.88 · wk low 03-27 29.79 · wk low 05-01 29.68 · wk low 06-12 29.63 · wk high ’25-10-10 29.53 |
| S2 | 28.34–29.21 | -3.5% to -6.3% | wk high 2024-10-11 29.21 · 61.8% 28.54 · wk low 10-16 28.34 |
| S3 | 27.00–27.78 | -8.2% to -10.8% | wk high ’25-06-13 27.78 · wk high 2024-11-15 27.74 · wk high 2024-12-06 27.45 · wk low ’25-10-24 27.34 · wk low 2024-10-04 27.00 |
| ATH | 37.15 | +22.8% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 29.53 (-2.4%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 28.34–29.21.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 28.34 (-6.3%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 27.00–27.78.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 35.35 (+16.8%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 31.35 · Est. Down < 31.19 (+3.1%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 29.57 · Est. Down < 23.72.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Thematic ETFs holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-10-20 (Thematic ETFs bot list: /home/box/thematic-etf-scorecard/latest.json (built 2026-10-21 07:51 PT, from PortfolioDashboardBBG.xlsx MASTER!CK6 'THEMATIC ETFS' block; live at https://skc-thematic-etfs.pages.dev/)); Theme: GLP-1 / Obesity. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLV (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Short history: the 200-wk SMA is not available, so that structure check scores 0. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
