MOO
Vaneck Agribusiness Etf
$81.74
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Thematic ETF · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $84.93–86.56 | +3.9% to +5.9% | wk high 05-08, wk high 04-10, wk high 02-13 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $79.89 | -2.3% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $74.13 | -9.3% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $84.31 | +3.1% | top of R1 (40-wk SMA, wk high 07-31) |
APPENDIX · MOO · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 37.7
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 8.6 + 0.0 = 8.6 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 14 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 37.7 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Neutral → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 38.0
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 1.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 3 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost) | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 11.5 / 20 |
| Raw | 38.0 (Early Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 38.0 Early Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (MOO close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 4 Early Down (+) ↑ | -0.41% | +1.28% | Est. Up ≥ 82.93 (+1.5%) · Early Up ≥ 82.44 · Est. Down < 82.00 |
| Trend · XLB | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -4.09% | -3.23% | Est. Up ≥ 88.08 (+7.8%) · Early Up ≥ 85.66 · Est. Down < 85.21 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) ↑ | +1.79% | +3.29% | Est. Up ≥ 80.50 (-1.5%) · Est. Down < 74.09 |
| Trading · XLB | 5 Established Down (+) → | -1.50% | +1.15% | Est. Up ≥ 97.30 (+19.0%) · Early Up ≥ 82.93 · Est. Down < 82.48 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 81.74)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 96.47–98.90 | +18.0% to +21.0% | 61.8% 96.47 · 50% 98.90 |
| R2 | 84.93–86.56 | +3.9% to +5.9% | wk high 05-08 84.93 · wk high 04-10 86.51 · wk high 02-13 86.56 |
| R1 | 82.37–84.31 | +0.8% to +3.1% | 40-wk SMA 82.37 · wk high 07-31 84.31 |
| S1 | 79.89–81.02 | -0.9% to -2.3% | wk low 03-06 81.02 · wk high 06-05 80.87 · wk low 08-07 80.39 · wk low 10-16 80.31 · wk low 10-02 80.29 · wk low 03-20 79.89 |
| S2 | 74.13–76.41 | -6.5% to -9.3% | wk low 06-26 76.41 · wk high ’25-08-29 75.91 · wk high ’25-07-04 75.74 · wk high ’25-07-25 75.64 · wk high ’25-06-20 75.54 · wk high ’25-09-12 75.13 · wk high ’25-12-19 74.92 · wk high ’25-10-31 74.59 · wk high ’25-10-03 74.13 |
| S3 | 71.31–73.43 | -10.2% to -12.8% | wk low ’25-09-05 73.43 · wk high ’25-11-14 73.09 · wk low ’25-09-26 72.78 · wk low ’25-06-27 72.69 · wk high ’25-05-23 72.68 · … +1 more · wk high 2024-11-29 72.50 · wk low ’25-12-12 72.42 · wk low ’25-12-26 72.32 · wk low ’25-08-01 71.90 · wk low ’25-10-17 71.31 |
| ATH | 109.19 | +33.6% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 79.89 (-2.3%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 74.13–76.41.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 74.13 (-9.3%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 71.31–73.43.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 82.93 (+1.5%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 82.44 · Est. Down < 82.00 (+0.3%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 80.50 · Est. Down < 74.09.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Thematic ETFs holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-10-20 (Thematic ETFs bot list: /home/box/thematic-etf-scorecard/latest.json (built 2026-10-21 07:51 PT, from PortfolioDashboardBBG.xlsx MASTER!CK6 'THEMATIC ETFS' block; live at https://skc-thematic-etfs.pages.dev/)); Theme: Agribusiness. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLB (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
