KRE
Ss Spdr S&P Regional Bank
$72.88
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Thematic ETF · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $76.84–78.81 | +5.4% to +8.1% | wk high 07-03, wk high 07-17, wk high 08-21 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $70.25 | -3.6% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $67.79 | -7.0% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $74.08 | +1.6% | top of R1 (wk low 07-10, wk low 07-24) |
APPENDIX · KRE · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 38.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 2.0 + 1.0 = 3.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 20 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 38.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 72.3
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 4.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 18 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive & rising | 25.0 / 25 |
| Band position | 5.3 / 20 |
| Raw | 72.3 (Early Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 72.3 Early Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (KRE close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (+) → | -1.39% | +4.23% | Est. Up ≥ 81.01 (+11.2%) · Early Up ≥ 72.90 · Est. Down < 72.51 |
| Trend · XLF | 5 Established Down (+) → | -2.42% | +1.34% | Est. Up ≥ 81.12 (+11.3%) · Early Up ≥ 73.78 · Est. Down < 73.39 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +3.35% | +2.03% | Est. Up ≥ 70.95 (-2.6%) · Est. Down < 54.74 |
| Trading · XLF | 3 Neutral (−) ↓ | -0.06% | -0.41% | Est. Up ≥ 73.20 (+0.4%) · Est. Down < 70.08 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 72.88)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R2 | 76.84–78.81 | +5.4% to +8.1% | wk high 07-03 76.84 · wk high 07-17 78.10 · wk high 08-21 78.24 · wk high 08-07 78.35 · ATH 2022-01-14 78.81 |
| R1 | 72.92–74.08 | +0.1% to +1.6% | wk low 07-10 72.92 · wk low 07-24 73.95 · wk high 02-13 74.08 |
| S1 | 70.25–72.42 | -0.6% to -3.6% | wk low 09-04 72.42 · wk high 04-17 71.44 · wk high 01-23 71.27 · wk high 05-08 71.24 · 40-wk SMA 71.16 · 200-day SMA 71.04 · wk high 2024-11-29 70.25 |
| S2 | 67.79–69.05 | -5.3% to -7.0% | 50% 69.05 · wk high 01-09 68.67 · wk low 05-01 68.36 · wk high ’25-12-19 68.09 · wk low 10-02 67.97 · wk high 2024-11-15 67.96 · wk low 06-05 67.81 · wk low 10-16 67.79 |
| S3 | 65.02–66.97 | -8.1% to -10.8% | wk high ’25-09-05 66.97 · 61.8% 66.75 · wk low 05-15 66.42 · wk high ’25-09-19 66.20 · wk high ’25-02-07 65.57 · wk high ’25-10-10 65.02 |
| ATH | 78.81 | +8.1% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 70.25 (-3.6%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 67.79–69.05.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 67.79 (-7.0%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 65.02–66.97.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 81.01 (+11.2%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 72.90 · Est. Down < 72.51 (-0.5%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 70.95 · Est. Down < 54.74.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Thematic ETFs holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-10-20 (Thematic ETFs bot list: /home/box/thematic-etf-scorecard/latest.json (built 2026-10-21 07:51 PT, from PortfolioDashboardBBG.xlsx MASTER!CK6 'THEMATIC ETFS' block; live at https://skc-thematic-etfs.pages.dev/)); Theme: Regional Banks. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLF (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
