KIE
Ss Spdr S&P Insurance Etf
$64.37
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Thematic ETF · entry card
APPENDIX · KIE · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 76.8
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 15.4 + 5.7 = 21.1 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 25 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 76.8 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Up |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Up |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Neutral → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 59.5
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 6.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 22 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive but rolling over from >80th pctile | 6.2 / 25 |
| Band position | 5.2 / 20 |
| Raw | 59.5 (Neutral) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 59.5 Neutral |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (KIE close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 2 Early Up (+) → | +2.34% | +2.84% | Est. Up ≥ 65.03 (+1.0%) · Early Up ≥ 62.21 · Est. Down < 61.88 |
| Trend · XLF | 2 Early Up (−) → | +1.27% | -0.01% | Est. Up ≥ 65.13 (+1.2%) · Early Up ≥ 62.97 · Est. Down < 62.63 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +3.55% | +3.61% | Est. Up ≥ 62.51 (-2.9%) · Est. Down < 47.89 |
| Trading · XLF | 3 Neutral (+) → | +0.12% | +1.13% | Est. Up ≥ 64.50 (+0.2%) · Est. Down < 61.39 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 64.37)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R1 | 64.44–65.20 | +0.1% to +1.3% | wk high 10-23 64.44 · wk high 09-04 64.94 · wk high 07-10 65.20 |
| S1 | 61.77–63.54 | -1.3% to -4.0% | wk high 09-18 63.54 · wk low 08-21 62.79 · wk high 2024-11-29 62.47 · wk low 07-24 61.77 |
| S2 | 59.57–61.27 | -4.8% to -7.5% | wk high ’25-03-28 61.27 · wk high ’25-12-26 61.26 · wk high 01-09 61.00 · wk high ’25-03-07 60.81 · wk high ’25-10-10 60.50 · … +4 more · wk high ’25-08-22 59.92 · wk high ’25-06-06 59.74 · 40-wk SMA 59.72 · 200-day SMA 59.66 · wk high ’25-11-14 59.57 |
| S3 | 57.28–58.98 | -8.4% to -11.0% | wk high 03-06 58.98 · wk high 04-17 58.89 · wk low 2024-11-22 58.86 · wk high 2024-10-18 58.82 · wk high ’25-02-14 58.66 · … +4 more · wk high 2024-10-04 57.71 · wk low ’25-09-19 57.58 · wk low ’25-06-20 57.52 · wk low ’25-03-14 57.38 · wk low 01-30 57.28 |
| ATH | 66.53 | +3.4% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 61.77 (-4.0%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 59.57–61.27.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 59.57 (-7.5%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 57.28–58.98.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 65.03 (+1.0%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 62.21 · Est. Down < 61.88 (-3.9%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 62.51 · Est. Down < 47.89.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Thematic ETFs holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-10-20 (Thematic ETFs bot list: /home/box/thematic-etf-scorecard/latest.json (built 2026-10-21 07:51 PT, from PortfolioDashboardBBG.xlsx MASTER!CK6 'THEMATIC ETFS' block; live at https://skc-thematic-etfs.pages.dev/)); Theme: Insurance. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLF (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
