$89.11
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Thematic ETF · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $94.20–96.15 | +5.7% to +7.9% | wk low 07-31, wk low 09-04, wk low 08-21 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $86.75 | -2.6% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $82.94 | -6.9% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $92.57 | +3.9% | top of R1 (wk high 02-13, wk low 07-03) |
APPENDIX · KBWB · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 28.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 2.0 + 1.0 = 3.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 14 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 28.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 77.7
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 13 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive & rising | 25.0 / 25 |
| Band position | 19.7 / 20 |
| Raw | 77.7 (Established Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 77.7 Established Up |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (KBWB close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (+) → | -4.38% | +2.96% | Est. Up ≥ 106.20 (+19.2%) · Early Up ≥ 92.32 · Est. Down < 91.82 |
| Trend · XLF | 5 Established Down (+) → | -5.35% | +0.10% | Est. Up ≥ 106.36 (+19.4%) · Early Up ≥ 93.40 · Est. Down < 92.91 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +2.76% | +0.88% | Est. Up ≥ 87.16 (-2.2%) · Est. Down < 74.24 |
| Trading · XLF | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -0.65% | -1.53% | Est. Up ≥ 93.48 (+4.9%) · Early Up ≥ 89.94 · Est. Down < 89.46 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 89.11)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 97.98–100.61 | +10.0% to +12.9% | wk high 09-04 97.98 · wk high 07-17 98.97 · ATH 08-17 100.61 |
| R2 | 94.20–96.15 | +5.7% to +7.9% | wk low 07-31 94.20 · wk low 09-04 94.45 · wk low 08-21 94.70 · wk high 06-26 96.15 |
| R1 | 91.44–92.57 | +2.6% to +3.9% | wk high 02-13 91.44 · wk low 07-03 92.57 |
| S1 | 86.75–89.06 | -0.1% to -2.6% | wk high 04-24 89.06 · wk high 10-16 89.04 · 40-wk SMA 88.97 · 200-day SMA 88.93 · wk high 01-09 88.84 · 50% 88.01 · wk high 05-08 87.99 · wk high 01-23 87.74 · wk high ’25-12-26 86.75 |
| S2 | 82.94–85.10 | -4.5% to -6.9% | wk low 10-02 85.10 · 61.8% 85.04 · wk low 10-16 84.30 · wk low 01-23 84.13 · wk low 01-02 83.92 · wk low 02-13 83.72 · wk low 05-15 82.94 |
| S3 | 77.72–80.08 | -10.1% to -12.8% | wk high ’25-11-14 80.08 · wk high ’25-09-26 80.04 · wk high ’25-09-05 78.43 · wk high ’25-10-31 77.72 |
| ATH | 100.61 | +12.9% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 86.75 (-2.6%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 82.94–85.10.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 82.94 (-6.9%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 77.72–80.08.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 106.20 (+19.2%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 92.32 · Est. Down < 91.82 (+3.0%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 87.16 · Est. Down < 74.24.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Thematic ETFs holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-10-20 (Thematic ETFs bot list: /home/box/thematic-etf-scorecard/latest.json (built 2026-10-21 07:51 PT, from PortfolioDashboardBBG.xlsx MASTER!CK6 'THEMATIC ETFS' block; live at https://skc-thematic-etfs.pages.dev/)); Theme: Large Banks. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLF (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
