$27.61
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Thematic ETF · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $28.82–29.59 | +4.4% to +7.2% | wk high 04-17, wk low 07-24, wk high ’25-12-26 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $26.99 | -2.2% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $25.75 | -6.7% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $28.35 | +2.7% | top of R1 (wk low 01-30, wk low 01-02) |
APPENDIX · JETS · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 21.7
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 2.0 + 1.0 = 3.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 10 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 21.7 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Neutral → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 58.0
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 9.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 0 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive & rising | 25.0 / 25 |
| Band position | 4.0 / 20 |
| Raw | 58.0 (Neutral) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 58.0 Neutral |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (JETS close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (+) → | -6.13% | +5.27% | Est. Up ≥ 36.14 (+30.9%) · Early Up ≥ 28.62 · Est. Down < 28.47 |
| Trend · XLI | 5 Established Down (+) → | -2.78% | +4.40% | Est. Up ≥ 31.02 (+12.4%) · Early Up ≥ 27.73 · Est. Down < 27.58 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) ↑ | +5.02% | +2.45% | Est. Up ≥ 26.43 (-4.3%) · Est. Down < 21.76 |
| Trading · XLI | 1 Established Up (−) ↑ | +1.50% | -0.26% | Est. Up ≥ 27.33 (-1.0%) · Est. Down < 25.17 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 27.61)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 29.75–29.78 | +7.8% to +7.9% | wk high 05-29 29.75 · wk high 09-25 29.78 |
| R2 | 28.82–29.59 | +4.4% to +7.2% | wk high 04-17 28.82 · wk low 07-24 29.01 · wk high ’25-12-26 29.23 · wk high 01-23 29.54 · wk high 01-09 29.59 |
| R1 | 27.61–28.35 | +2.7% to -0.0% | wk low 01-30 27.61 · wk low 01-02 27.88 · wk low 01-16 27.97 · wk high 05-08 28.11 · 200-day SMA 28.35 |
| S1 | 26.99–27.42 | -0.7% to -2.2% | wk low 09-18 27.42 · wk low 06-12 27.11 · wk high ’25-01-24 27.10 · wk high ’25-09-05 26.99 |
| S2 | 25.75–26.54 | -3.9% to -6.7% | wk high ’25-01-10 26.54 · wk high 2024-12-13 26.12 · wk high ’25-07-11 25.88 · wk high 2024-12-27 25.86 · wk high 03-27 25.81 · wk high ’25-10-10 25.75 |
| S3 | 25.00–25.70 | -6.9% to -9.5% | wk high ’25-10-31 25.70 · wk high ’25-07-25 25.67 · wk low 10-23 25.54 · wk high 2024-11-15 25.05 · wk low ’25-02-07 25.00 |
| ATH | 34.75 | +25.9% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 26.99 (-2.2%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 25.75–26.54.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 25.75 (-6.7%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 25.00–25.70.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 36.14 (+30.9%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 28.62 · Est. Down < 28.47 (+3.1%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 26.43 · Est. Down < 21.76.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Thematic ETFs holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-10-20 (Thematic ETFs bot list: /home/box/thematic-etf-scorecard/latest.json (built 2026-10-21 07:51 PT, from PortfolioDashboardBBG.xlsx MASTER!CK6 'THEMATIC ETFS' block; live at https://skc-thematic-etfs.pages.dev/)); Theme: Airlines / Travel. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLI (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
