ITA
Ishares U.S. Aerospace & Def
$216.17
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Thematic ETF · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $224.19–228.66 | +3.7% to +5.8% | wk low 02-06, wk low 06-12, wk low 07-24 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $211.33 | -2.2% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $204.04 | -5.6% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $220.79 | +2.1% | top of R1 (wk low 05-22, wk high ’25-10-31) |
APPENDIX · ITA · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 13.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 2.0 + 1.0 = 3.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 5 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 13.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 76.4
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 10.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 10 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive & rising | 25.0 / 25 |
| Band position | 11.4 / 20 |
| Raw | 76.4 (Established Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 76.4 Established Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (ITA close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (+) → | -5.71% | +1.37% | Est. Up ≥ 263.99 (+22.1%) · Early Up ≥ 222.24 · Est. Down < 221.06 |
| Trend · XLI | 5 Established Down (+) → | -2.30% | +0.54% | Est. Up ≥ 225.53 (+4.3%) · Early Up ≥ 215.22 · Est. Down < 214.08 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +5.28% | +2.89% | Est. Up ≥ 206.25 (-4.6%) · Est. Down < 166.20 |
| Trading · XLI | 1 Established Up (+) ↑ | +1.74% | +0.17% | Est. Up ≥ 213.25 (-1.4%) · Est. Down < 192.47 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 216.17)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 232.32–236.66 | +7.5% to +9.5% | wk low 06-26 232.32 · 50% 232.96 · wk high 05-29 236.14 · wk high 04-17 236.66 |
| R2 | 224.19–228.66 | +3.7% to +5.8% | wk low 02-06 224.19 · wk low 06-12 224.50 · wk low 07-24 226.60 · wk high 05-15 227.26 · 61.8% 227.37 · 40-wk SMA 228.36 · 200-day SMA 228.66 |
| R1 | 216.49–220.79 | +0.1% to +2.1% | wk low 05-22 216.49 · wk high ’25-10-31 220.79 |
| S1 | 211.33–215.80 | -0.2% to -2.2% | wk high ’25-10-10 215.80 · wk low 01-02 213.61 · wk low 05-01 211.82 · wk high 10-16 211.33 |
| S2 | 204.04–209.31 | -3.2% to -5.6% | wk low 04-03 209.31 · wk low ’25-10-17 204.04 |
| S3 | 195.71–201.00 | -7.0% to -9.5% | wk low 10-09 201.00 · wk high ’25-08-29 200.75 · wk high ’25-08-01 199.89 · wk low 10-23 197.36 · wk low ’25-11-21 195.71 |
| ATH | 256.60 | +18.7% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 211.33 (-2.2%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 204.04–209.31.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 204.04 (-5.6%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 195.71–201.00.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 263.99 (+22.1%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 222.24 · Est. Down < 221.06 (+2.3%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 206.25 · Est. Down < 166.20.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Thematic ETFs holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-10-20 (Thematic ETFs bot list: /home/box/thematic-etf-scorecard/latest.json (built 2026-10-21 07:51 PT, from PortfolioDashboardBBG.xlsx MASTER!CK6 'THEMATIC ETFS' block; live at https://skc-thematic-etfs.pages.dev/)); Theme: Aerospace & Defense. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLI (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
