IBIT
Ishares Bitcoin Trust Etf
$44.05
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Thematic ETF · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $46.06–46.68 | +4.6% to +6.0% | wk low ’25-02-28, wk high 09-04, wk high 05-15 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $42.98 | -2.4% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $41.38 | -6.1% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $45.11 | +2.4% | top of R1 (wk high 05-29, wk high 04-24) |
APPENDIX · IBIT · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 63.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 18.0 + 9.0 = 27.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 11 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 63.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Up |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Up |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✖ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 0/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Neutral → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 29.0
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 12 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 14.5 / 20 |
| Raw | 29.0 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 29.0 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (IBIT close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 1 Established Up (−) → | +2.96% | -5.06% | Est. Up ≥ 42.57 (-3.4%) · Est. Down < 30.83 |
| Trend · ^GSPC | 1 Established Up (−) → | +2.96% | -5.06% | Est. Up ≥ 42.57 (-3.4%) · Est. Down < 30.83 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -2.23% | -1.70% | Est. Up ≥ 48.92 (+11.1%) · Early Up ≥ 45.16 · Est. Down < 44.92 |
| Trading · ^GSPC | 5 Established Down (−) → | -2.23% | -1.70% | Est. Up ≥ 48.92 (+11.1%) · Early Up ≥ 45.16 · Est. Down < 44.92 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 44.05)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 47.55–48.07 | +7.9% to +9.1% | wk low ’25-12-05 47.55 · wk low ’25-12-19 47.87 · wk high 10-23 48.07 |
| R2 | 46.06–46.68 | +4.6% to +6.0% | wk low ’25-02-28 46.06 · wk high 09-04 46.37 · wk high 05-15 46.56 · wk low ’25-11-21 46.68 |
| R1 | 44.24–45.11 | +0.4% to +2.4% | wk high 05-29 44.24 · wk high 04-24 45.08 · wk low 10-16 45.11 |
| S1 | 42.98–43.95 | -0.2% to -2.4% | wk low ’25-03-14 43.95 · wk low 09-04 43.23 · wk low ’25-04-11 42.98 |
| S2 | 41.38–42.50 | -3.5% to -6.1% | wk high 03-20 42.50 · wk low 09-18 42.37 · wk high 03-06 42.02 · 200-day SMA 41.38 |
| S3 | 37.13–38.17 | -13.3% to -15.7% | wk low 2024-11-08 38.17 · wk high 06-19 38.10 · wk high 07-24 37.93 · wk low 03-27 37.13 |
| ATH | 71.82 | +63.0% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 42.98 (-2.4%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 41.38–42.50.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 41.38 (-6.1%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 37.13–38.17.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 42.57 (-3.4%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 42.57 · Est. Down < 30.83 (-30.0%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 48.92 · Early Up ≥ 45.16 · Est. Down < 44.92.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Thematic ETFs holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-10-20 (Thematic ETFs bot list: /home/box/thematic-etf-scorecard/latest.json (built 2026-10-21 07:51 PT, from PortfolioDashboardBBG.xlsx MASTER!CK6 'THEMATIC ETFS' block; live at https://skc-thematic-etfs.pages.dev/)); Theme: Bitcoin. Sector RS dropped (no distinct sector ETF), Trend score rescaled from 50 to 100. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and ^GSPC (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Short history: the 200-wk SMA is not available, so that structure check scores 0. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
