GRID
First Trst Nasd Cl Edg Sgiif
$167.40
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Thematic ETF · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $178.79–182.90 | +6.8% to +9.3% | wk high 02-13, 200-day SMA, 40-wk SMA |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $165.77 | -1.0% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $155.76 | -7.0% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $176.13 | +5.2% | top of R1 (wk low 09-18, 50% retr.) |
APPENDIX · GRID · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 23.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 0.0 + 0.0 = 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 14 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 23.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Neutral → 10-02 Neutral → 10-09 Neutral → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 37.8
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 15.4 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 3 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost) | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 16.9 / 20 |
| Raw | 37.8 (Early Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 37.8 Early Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (GRID close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -6.67% | -2.12% | Est. Up ≥ 201.21 (+20.2%) · Early Up ≥ 176.43 · Est. Down < 175.49 |
| Trend · XLI | 5 Established Down (−) → | -3.48% | -2.93% | Est. Up ≥ 171.52 (+2.5%) · Early Up ≥ 171.21 · Est. Down < 170.30 |
| Trading · S&P | 2 Early Up (+) ↑ | +1.22% | +0.24% | Est. Up ≥ 185.88 (+11.0%) · Early Up ≥ 165.42 · Est. Down < 164.54 |
| Trading · XLI | 5 Established Down (−) → | -2.21% | -2.41% | Est. Up ≥ 208.78 (+24.7%) · Early Up ≥ 171.08 · Est. Down < 170.17 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 167.40)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 197.68–199.99 | +18.1% to +19.5% | wk high 06-26 197.68 · wk high 06-05 198.78 · ATH 05-11 199.99 |
| R2 | 178.79–182.90 | +6.8% to +9.3% | wk high 02-13 178.79 · 200-day SMA 178.80 · 40-wk SMA 179.23 · wk high 02-27 179.35 · wk low 06-12 181.25 · wk low 05-22 182.73 · wk high 09-11 182.90 |
| R1 | 171.63–176.13 | +2.5% to +5.2% | wk low 09-18 171.63 · 50% 172.31 · wk low 09-04 174.20 · wk low 07-17 174.38 · wk low 10-02 176.13 |
| S1 | 165.77–166.40 | -0.6% to -1.0% | wk low 07-31 166.40 · 61.8% 165.77 |
| S2 | 155.76–160.33 | -4.2% to -7.0% | wk low 10-23 160.33 · wk high ’25-10-31 159.97 · wk low 04-03 156.74 · wk high ’25-12-12 155.76 |
| S3 | 149.77–152.95 | -8.6% to -10.5% | wk low 01-02 152.95 · wk low ’25-12-19 149.77 |
| ATH | 199.99 | +19.5% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 165.77 (-1.0%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 155.76–160.33.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 155.76 (-7.0%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 149.77–152.95.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 201.21 (+20.2%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 176.43 · Est. Down < 175.49 (+4.8%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 185.88 · Early Up ≥ 165.42 · Est. Down < 164.54.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Thematic ETFs holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-10-20 (Thematic ETFs bot list: /home/box/thematic-etf-scorecard/latest.json (built 2026-10-21 07:51 PT, from PortfolioDashboardBBG.xlsx MASTER!CK6 'THEMATIC ETFS' block; live at https://skc-thematic-etfs.pages.dev/)); Theme: Power Grid / Electrification. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLI (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
