$359.26
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Thematic ETF · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $371.88–382.22 | +3.5% to +6.4% | wk low 06-12, 61.8% retr., wk high 07-24 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $310.25 | -13.6% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $299.89 | -16.5% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $368.52 | +2.6% | top of R1 (wk low ’25-10-31, wk low 06-26) |
APPENDIX · GLD · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 10.0
| RS vs S&P (20); no sector benchmark for this ETF | 0.0 / 20 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 5 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/50 | 10.0 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 6.8
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 0 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 4.3 / 20 |
| Raw | 6.8 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 6.8 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (GLD close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -7.48% | -5.89% | Est. Up ≥ 395.92 (+10.2%) · Early Up ≥ 386.24 · Est. Down < 384.19 |
| Trend · ^GSPC | 5 Established Down (−) → | -7.48% | -5.89% | Est. Up ≥ 395.92 (+10.2%) · Early Up ≥ 386.24 · Est. Down < 384.19 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -1.92% | -0.58% | Est. Up ≥ 387.05 (+7.7%) · Early Up ≥ 367.09 · Est. Down < 365.13 |
| Trading · ^GSPC | 5 Established Down (−) → | -1.92% | -0.58% | Est. Up ≥ 387.05 (+7.7%) · Early Up ≥ 367.09 · Est. Down < 365.13 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 359.26)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 383.60–388.39 | +6.8% to +8.1% | wk high 07-10 383.60 · wk high ’25-11-14 388.18 · wk low 09-18 388.39 |
| R2 | 371.88–382.22 | +3.5% to +6.4% | wk low 06-12 371.88 · 61.8% 380.04 · wk high 07-24 382.22 |
| R1 | 360.12–368.52 | +0.2% to +2.6% | wk low ’25-10-31 360.12 · wk low 06-26 363.32 · wk low 07-17 363.60 · wk low 07-31 366.53 · wk low ’25-11-21 368.52 |
| S1 | 310.25–317.63 | -11.6% to -13.6% | wk high ’25-04-25 317.63 · wk high ’25-06-13 317.60 · wk high ’25-07-25 316.24 · wk high ’25-05-09 315.62 · wk high ’25-08-08 313.53 · wk high ’25-05-23 310.25 |
| S2 | 299.89–305.19 | -15.1% to -16.5% | wk low ’25-08-22 305.19 · wk low ’25-06-13 305.06 · wk low ’25-08-01 300.96 · wk low ’25-06-27 299.89 |
| S3 | 291.78–295.32 | -17.8% to -18.8% | wk low ’25-05-02 295.32 · wk low ’25-05-16 291.78 |
| ATH | 509.70 | +41.9% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 310.25 (-13.6%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 299.89–305.19.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 299.89 (-16.5%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 291.78–295.32.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 395.92 (+10.2%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 386.24 · Est. Down < 384.19 (+6.9%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 387.05 · Early Up ≥ 367.09 · Est. Down < 365.13.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Thematic ETFs holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-10-20 (Thematic ETFs bot list: /home/box/thematic-etf-scorecard/latest.json (built 2026-10-21 07:51 PT, from PortfolioDashboardBBG.xlsx MASTER!CK6 'THEMATIC ETFS' block; live at https://skc-thematic-etfs.pages.dev/)); Theme: Gold. Sector RS dropped (no distinct sector ETF), Trend score rescaled from 50 to 100. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and ^GSPC (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
