GDX
Vaneck Gold Miners Etf
$77.60
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Thematic ETF · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $83.23–85.46 | +7.3% to +10.1% | wk low 01-02, 50% retr., wk high ’25-10-17 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $72.45 | -6.6% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $68.13 | -12.2% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $80.18 | +3.3% | top of R1 (wk high 07-24, wk low 03-20) |
APPENDIX · GDX · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 19.8
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 4.6 + 2.3 = 6.9 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 5 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 19.8 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Neutral → 10-09 Neutral → 10-16 Neutral → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 8.0
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 0 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 5.5 / 20 |
| Raw | 8.0 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 8.0 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (GDX close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 4 Early Down (−) → | -11.58% | -11.19% | Est. Up ≥ 88.40 (+13.9%) · Est. Down < 70.98 |
| Trend · XLB | 4 Early Down (−) → | -14.89% | -15.14% | Est. Up ≥ 91.90 (+18.4%) · Est. Down < 75.63 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -5.00% | -2.68% | Est. Up ≥ 95.17 (+22.6%) · Early Up ≥ 81.90 · Est. Down < 81.46 |
| Trading · XLB | 5 Established Down (−) → | -8.15% | -4.70% | Early Up ≥ 84.44 · Est. Down < 83.99 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 77.60)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 89.81–92.00 | +15.7% to +18.6% | 40-wk SMA 89.81 · wk high 06-19 89.99 · wk high 05-29 90.36 · 200-day SMA 90.42 · wk high ’25-12-26 91.67 · wk low 02-06 92.00 |
| R2 | 83.23–85.46 | +7.3% to +10.1% | wk low 01-02 83.23 · 50% 84.27 · wk high ’25-10-17 85.09 · wk low 05-08 85.46 |
| R1 | 77.99–80.18 | +0.5% to +3.3% | wk high 07-24 77.99 · wk low 03-20 78.74 · wk low ’25-12-12 79.07 · wk high ’25-11-14 79.97 · wk high 07-10 80.18 |
| S1 | 72.45–73.70 | -5.0% to -6.6% | wk low 06-26 73.70 · wk low 06-12 73.63 · wk low ’25-11-21 72.45 |
| S2 | 68.13–69.74 | -10.1% to -12.2% | wk low 07-17 69.74 · wk low ’25-10-31 68.13 |
| S3 | 53.25–54.78 | -29.4% to -31.4% | wk high ’25-07-25 54.78 · wk high ’25-06-13 54.70 · wk high ’25-04-25 53.25 |
| ATH | 117.18 | +51.0% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 72.45 (-6.6%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 68.13–69.74.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 68.13 (-12.2%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 53.25–54.78.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 88.40 (+13.9%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 88.40 · Est. Down < 70.98 (-8.5%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 95.17 · Early Up ≥ 81.90 · Est. Down < 81.46.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Thematic ETFs holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-10-20 (Thematic ETFs bot list: /home/box/thematic-etf-scorecard/latest.json (built 2026-10-21 07:51 PT, from PortfolioDashboardBBG.xlsx MASTER!CK6 'THEMATIC ETFS' block; live at https://skc-thematic-etfs.pages.dev/)); Theme: Gold Miners. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLB (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
