ETHA
Ishares Ethereum Trust Etf
$51.78
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Thematic ETF · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $54.39–55.90 | +5.0% to +8.0% | wk high 05-08, wk low ’25-05-23, wk low 2024-11-08 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $49.34 | -4.7% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $47.76 | -7.8% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $53.70 | +3.7% | top of R1 (wk low 10-16, wk low 2024-10-04) |
APPENDIX · ETHA · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 29.8
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 4.6 + 2.3 = 6.9 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 11 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 29.8 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Up; Down pending 1/2 |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✖ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 0/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Neutral → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 26.6
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 2.0 + 1.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 12 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost) | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 9.1 / 20 |
| Raw | 26.6 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 26.6 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (ETHA close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 4 Early Down (−) ↓ | -1.89% | -6.53% | Est. Up ≥ 52.13 (+0.7%) · Est. Down < 36.25 |
| Trend · ^GSPC | 4 Early Down (−) ↓ | -1.89% | -6.53% | Est. Up ≥ 52.13 (+0.7%) · Est. Down < 36.25 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (+) → | -1.92% | +0.07% | Est. Up ≥ 61.30 (+18.4%) · Early Up ≥ 52.86 · Est. Down < 52.58 |
| Trading · ^GSPC | 5 Established Down (+) → | -1.92% | +0.07% | Est. Up ≥ 61.30 (+18.4%) · Early Up ≥ 52.86 · Est. Down < 52.58 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 51.78)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 56.40–57.84 | +8.9% to +11.7% | wk low ’25-06-06 56.40 · wk high 08-28 57.40 · wk low ’25-02-14 57.84 |
| R2 | 54.39–55.90 | +5.0% to +8.0% | wk high 05-08 54.39 · wk low ’25-05-23 54.42 · wk low 2024-11-08 54.54 · wk low 2024-10-25 55.62 · wk high 04-17 55.90 |
| R1 | 52.49–53.70 | +1.4% to +3.7% | wk low 10-16 52.49 · wk low 2024-10-04 52.53 · wk low 09-18 53.25 · wk high 03-20 53.46 · wk low 09-04 53.70 |
| S1 | 49.34–50.25 | -3.0% to -4.7% | wk low 05-01 50.25 · wk low ’25-06-27 49.71 · 200-day SMA 49.34 |
| S2 | 47.76–48.45 | -6.4% to -7.8% | 40-wk SMA 48.45 · wk high ’25-03-28 47.76 |
| S3 | 44.58–44.75 | -13.6% to -13.9% | wk high 07-31 44.75 · wk low 03-27 44.58 |
| ATH | 110.40 | +113.2% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 49.34 (-4.7%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 47.76–48.45.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 47.76 (-7.8%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 44.58–44.75.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 52.13 (+0.7%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 52.13 · Est. Down < 36.25 (-30.0%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 61.30 · Early Up ≥ 52.86 · Est. Down < 52.58.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Thematic ETFs holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-10-20 (Thematic ETFs bot list: /home/box/thematic-etf-scorecard/latest.json (built 2026-10-21 07:51 PT, from PortfolioDashboardBBG.xlsx MASTER!CK6 'THEMATIC ETFS' block; live at https://skc-thematic-etfs.pages.dev/)); Theme: Ethereum. Sector RS dropped (no distinct sector ETF), Trend score rescaled from 50 to 100. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and ^GSPC (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Short history: the 200-wk SMA is not available, so that structure check scores 0. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
