DBA
Invesco Db Agriculture Fund
$26.52
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Thematic ETF · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $27.53–28.12 | +3.8% to +6.0% | 50% retr., wk high ’25-06-06, wk high ’25-08-29 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $25.84 | -2.6% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $24.86 | -6.3% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $27.37 | +3.2% | top of R1 (wk high ’25-12-12, wk low 04-10) |
APPENDIX · DBA · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 23.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 0.0 + 0.0 = 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 14 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 23.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Up; Down pending 1/2 |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Neutral → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 24.5
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 3 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 19.0 / 20 |
| Raw | 24.5 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 24.5 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (DBA close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -3.58% | -3.75% | Est. Up ≥ 29.20 (+10.1%) · Early Up ≥ 27.94 · Est. Down < 27.79 |
| Trend · ^GSPC | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -3.58% | -3.75% | Est. Up ≥ 29.20 (+10.1%) · Early Up ≥ 27.94 · Est. Down < 27.79 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -2.69% | -0.44% | Est. Up ≥ 29.44 (+11.0%) · Early Up ≥ 27.30 · Est. Down < 27.15 |
| Trading · ^GSPC | 5 Established Down (−) → | -2.69% | -0.44% | Est. Up ≥ 29.44 (+11.0%) · Early Up ≥ 27.30 · Est. Down < 27.15 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 26.52)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 28.36–28.86 | +6.9% to +8.8% | wk high 07-24 28.36 · wk high ’25-02-21 28.49 · wk high 05-15 28.84 · wk high 10-09 28.86 |
| R2 | 27.53–28.12 | +3.8% to +6.0% | 50% 27.53 · wk high ’25-06-06 27.59 · wk high ’25-08-29 27.77 · wk low 10-02 27.84 · wk high ’25-09-19 28.01 · wk high ’25-01-31 28.02 · wk high 2024-12-20 28.03 · wk low 09-18 28.12 |
| R1 | 26.67–27.37 | +0.6% to +3.2% | wk high ’25-12-12 26.67 · wk low 04-10 26.77 · wk high ’25-11-07 26.94 · wk high ’25-03-21 27.03 · wk high ’25-10-03 27.04 · 61.8% 27.06 · wk low ’25-09-05 27.08 · wk high ’25-10-24 27.19 · wk high ’25-04-04 27.22 · wk low 08-07 27.37 |
| S1 | 25.84–26.51 | -0.0% to -2.6% | wk low ’25-05-02 26.51 · wk low ’25-05-30 26.47 · wk low 07-03 26.45 · wk low 03-20 26.44 · wk low 2024-12-06 26.43 · … +3 more · wk low ’25-10-31 26.05 · wk high 01-30 26.01 · wk low ’25-01-10 26.00 · wk low ’25-03-07 25.86 · wk low 2024-12-27 25.84 |
| S2 | 24.86–25.62 | -3.4% to -6.3% | wk low ’25-08-01 25.62 · wk low 02-20 25.61 · wk low ’25-07-04 25.59 · wk low 02-06 25.54 · wk low 01-16 25.48 · wk low ’25-12-26 25.40 · wk low ’25-04-11 25.27 · wk low 2024-10-11 25.09 · wk low 2024-11-08 24.86 |
| ATH | 29.52 | +11.3% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 25.84 (-2.6%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 24.86–25.62.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 24.86 (-6.3%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to the next lower level (none computed).
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 29.20 (+10.1%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 27.94 · Est. Down < 27.79 (+4.8%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 29.44 · Early Up ≥ 27.30 · Est. Down < 27.15.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Thematic ETFs holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-10-20 (Thematic ETFs bot list: /home/box/thematic-etf-scorecard/latest.json (built 2026-10-21 07:51 PT, from PortfolioDashboardBBG.xlsx MASTER!CK6 'THEMATIC ETFS' block; live at https://skc-thematic-etfs.pages.dev/)); Theme: Agriculture Commodities. Sector RS dropped (no distinct sector ETF), Trend score rescaled from 50 to 100. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and ^GSPC (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
