CRAK
Vaneck Oil Refiners Etf
$60.60
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Thematic ETF · entry card
APPENDIX · CRAK · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 83.8
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 18.0 + 2.3 = 20.3 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 30 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 83.8 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Up |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Up |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✔ No lower high vs cycle high 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 27.1
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 2.0 + 1.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 15 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 6.6 / 20 |
| Raw | 27.1 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 27.1 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (CRAK close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 1 Established Up (−) → | +2.22% | -6.73% | Est. Up ≥ 61.36 (+1.3%) · Est. Down < 43.35 |
| Trend · XLE | 4 Early Down (−) → | -8.44% | -10.04% | Est. Up ≥ 68.21 (+12.6%) · Est. Down < 67.68 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (+) → | -4.31% | +0.84% | Est. Up ≥ 74.72 (+23.3%) · Early Up ≥ 63.25 · Est. Down < 62.92 |
| Trading · XLE | 5 Established Down (+) → | -3.59% | +1.87% | Est. Up ≥ 80.04 (+32.1%) · Early Up ≥ 62.72 · Est. Down < 62.38 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 60.60)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R2 | 66.59–68.37 | +9.9% to +12.8% | wk high 09-18 66.59 · ATH 10-14 68.37 |
| R1 | 61.06–62.18 | +0.8% to +2.6% | wk high 08-21 61.06 · wk low 10-02 62.18 |
| S1 | 56.46–58.20 | -4.0% to -6.8% | wk low 08-28 58.20 · wk high 07-24 56.85 · 50% 56.46 |
| S2 | 52.65–53.65 | -11.5% to -13.1% | 61.8% 53.65 · wk low 07-31 53.25 · 40-wk SMA 52.89 · 200-day SMA 52.65 |
| S3 | 49.75–50.27 | -17.0% to -17.9% | wk high 06-05 50.27 · wk high 04-03 49.75 |
| ATH | 68.37 | +12.8% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 56.46 (-6.8%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 52.65–53.65.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 52.65 (-13.1%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 49.75–50.27.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 61.36 (+1.3%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 61.36 · Est. Down < 43.35 (-28.5%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 74.72 · Early Up ≥ 63.25 · Est. Down < 62.92.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Thematic ETFs holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-10-20 (Thematic ETFs bot list: /home/box/thematic-etf-scorecard/latest.json (built 2026-10-21 07:51 PT, from PortfolioDashboardBBG.xlsx MASTER!CK6 'THEMATIC ETFS' block; live at https://skc-thematic-etfs.pages.dev/)); Theme: Oil Refiners. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLE (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
