BSK-AIHYPER
AI Hyperscalers basket (AMZN, META, MSFT, GOOG)
$561.28
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Thematic ETF · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $578.76–593.48 | +3.1% to +5.7% | wk high 07-17, wk high 05-08, wk high 05-29 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $547.25 | -2.5% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $522.30 | -6.9% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $575.65 | +2.6% | top of R1 (wk low 05-15, wk high ’25-10-31) |
APPENDIX · BSK-AIHYPER · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 53.2
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 4.6 + 2.3 = 6.9 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 25 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 53.2 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Neutral |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Up; Neutral pending 1/2 |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✔ No lower high vs cycle high 5/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Neutral. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 21.6
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 2.0 + 1.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 11 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 5.1 / 20 |
| Raw | 21.6 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 21.6 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (BSK-AIHYPER close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 4 Early Down (−) ↓ | -3.96% | -8.10% | Est. Up ≥ 579.77 (+3.3%) · Est. Down < 558.90 |
| Trend · XLK | 4 Early Down (−) ↓ | -1.36% | -7.05% | Est. Up ≥ 563.33 (+0.4%) · Est. Down < 543.12 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (+) → | -3.55% | +1.77% | Est. Up ≥ 724.31 (+29.0%) · Early Up ≥ 581.47 · Est. Down < 578.36 |
| Trading · XLK | 5 Established Down (+) ↓ | -0.35% | +6.69% | Est. Up ≥ 596.34 (+6.2%) · Early Up ≥ 563.78 · Est. Down < 560.77 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 561.28)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 610.14–628.43 | +8.7% to +12.0% | wk high 08-07 610.14 · wk high 09-25 628.43 |
| R2 | 578.76–593.48 | +3.1% to +5.7% | wk high 07-17 578.76 · wk high 05-08 590.28 · wk high 05-29 593.48 |
| R1 | 561.32–575.65 | +0.0% to +2.6% | wk low 05-15 561.32 · wk high ’25-10-31 566.20 · wk high 01-16 567.86 · wk high 01-30 575.65 |
| S1 | 547.25–560.77 | -0.1% to -2.5% | wk high ’25-12-12 560.77 · wk low 09-04 560.52 · wk low 08-21 557.98 · wk high ’25-09-19 554.93 · 200-day SMA 554.39 · 40-wk SMA 552.68 · wk low 05-01 549.78 · 50% 547.25 |
| S2 | 522.30–537.80 | -4.2% to -6.9% | wk low 01-02 537.80 · wk low ’25-12-19 532.34 · wk high ’25-08-15 527.79 · wk high ’25-08-01 527.09 · wk low 01-23 524.79 · 61.8% 524.21 · wk high 03-06 522.30 |
| S3 | 510.99–517.50 | -7.8% to -9.0% | wk low 06-12 517.50 · wk low ’25-10-17 514.07 · wk low 07-24 512.86 · wk low ’25-11-21 510.99 |
| ATH | 644.87 | +14.9% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 547.25 (-2.5%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 522.30–537.80.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 522.30 (-6.9%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 510.99–517.50.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 579.77 (+3.3%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 579.77 · Est. Down < 558.90 (-0.4%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 724.31 · Early Up ≥ 581.47 · Est. Down < 578.36.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Thematic ETFs holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-10-20 (Thematic ETFs bot list: /home/box/thematic-etf-scorecard/latest.json (built 2026-10-21 07:51 PT, from PortfolioDashboardBBG.xlsx MASTER!CK6 'THEMATIC ETFS' block; live at https://skc-thematic-etfs.pages.dev/)); Theme: Basket · AI Hyperscalers. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLK (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
