BSK-AIFIBER
AI Fiber Optics basket (LITE, COHR, GLW, MRVL)
$1004.11
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Thematic ETF · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $1161.94–1184.98 | +15.7% to +18.0% | wk low 09-04, 200-day SMA, 40-wk SMA |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $932.66 | -7.1% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $627.49 | -37.5% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $1085.21 | +8.1% | top of R1 (wk low 07-17, wk low 05-01) |
APPENDIX · BSK-AIFIBER · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 23.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 0.0 + 0.0 = 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 14 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 23.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 22.5
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 8 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 12.0 / 20 |
| Raw | 22.5 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 22.5 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (BSK-AIFIBER close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -13.91% | -5.75% | Early Up ≥ 1272.33 · Est. Down < 1265.58 |
| Trend · XLK | 5 Established Down (−) → | -11.45% | -4.67% | Early Up ≥ 1234.33 · Est. Down < 1227.78 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -11.51% | -13.90% | Early Up ≥ 1129.88 · Est. Down < 1123.83 |
| Trading · XLK | 5 Established Down (−) → | -8.50% | -9.74% | Early Up ≥ 1094.68 · Est. Down < 1088.83 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 1004.11)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 1204.72–1214.14 | +20.0% to +20.9% | wk low 09-18 1204.72 · wk low 05-22 1214.14 |
| R2 | 1161.94–1184.98 | +15.7% to +18.0% | wk low 09-04 1161.94 · 200-day SMA 1170.92 · 40-wk SMA 1184.98 |
| R1 | 1065.83–1085.21 | +6.1% to +8.1% | wk low 07-17 1065.83 · wk low 05-01 1077.20 · 50% 1085.21 |
| S1 | 932.66–941.74 | -6.2% to -7.1% | wk low 07-31 941.74 · wk high 03-06 940.28 · 61.8% 932.66 |
| S2 | 627.49–634.39 | -36.8% to -37.5% | wk high 01-09 634.39 · wk high ’25-12-12 627.49 |
| S3 | 541.11–549.98 | -45.2% to -46.1% | wk low 01-09 549.98 · wk high ’25-11-14 543.55 · wk low ’25-12-19 541.11 |
| ATH | 1731.59 | +72.4% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 932.66 (-7.1%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 627.49–634.39.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 627.49 (-37.5%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 541.11–549.98.
- Trend vs S&P: above its 16-wk avg ≥ 1272.33 · Est. Down < 1265.58 (+26.0%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Early Up ≥ 1129.88 · Est. Down < 1123.83.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Thematic ETFs holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-10-20 (Thematic ETFs bot list: /home/box/thematic-etf-scorecard/latest.json (built 2026-10-21 07:51 PT, from PortfolioDashboardBBG.xlsx MASTER!CK6 'THEMATIC ETFS' block; live at https://skc-thematic-etfs.pages.dev/)); Theme: Basket · AI Fiber Optics. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLK (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
