$80.32
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Thematic ETF · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $83.57–85.55 | +4.0% to +6.5% | wk low ’25-10-24, wk high 01-16, wk high ’25-12-12 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $76.92 | -4.2% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $75.60 | -5.9% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $82.45 | +2.7% | top of R1 (wk high 04-17, wk high 05-15) |
APPENDIX · ARKK · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 33.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 0.0 + 0.0 = 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 20 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 33.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Neutral → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 41.3
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 16 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — oversold & turning up (with structure) | 18.8 / 25 |
| Band position | 6.5 / 20 |
| Raw | 41.3 (Early Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 41.3 Early Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (ARKK close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -1.28% | -0.07% | Est. Up ≥ 82.38 (+2.6%) · Est. Down < 75.98 |
| Trend · ^GSPC | 5 Established Down (−) → | -1.28% | -0.07% | Est. Up ≥ 82.38 (+2.6%) · Est. Down < 75.98 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -1.90% | -4.70% | Est. Up ≥ 93.14 (+16.0%) · Early Up ≥ 82.03 · Est. Down < 81.60 |
| Trading · ^GSPC | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -1.90% | -4.70% | Est. Up ≥ 93.14 (+16.0%) · Early Up ≥ 82.03 · Est. Down < 81.60 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 80.32)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 90.78–92.65 | +13.0% to +15.4% | wk high ’25-10-31 90.78 · wk high 09-25 92.20 · wk high ’25-10-10 92.65 |
| R2 | 83.57–85.55 | +4.0% to +6.5% | wk low ’25-10-24 83.57 · wk high 01-16 83.75 · wk high ’25-12-12 84.02 · wk high 07-10 84.34 · wk high ’25-09-19 85.55 |
| R1 | 80.53–82.45 | +0.3% to +2.7% | wk high 04-17 80.53 · wk high 05-15 80.68 · wk high 06-19 81.22 · wk low 09-18 82.04 · wk high ’25-12-26 82.34 · wk high 05-29 82.45 |
| S1 | 76.92–79.19 | -1.4% to -4.2% | wk high ’25-07-25 79.19 · wk low 08-21 79.06 · wk high ’25-08-15 78.76 · 200-day SMA 78.27 · 40-wk SMA 77.79 · wk low ’25-12-19 77.66 · wk low 01-02 76.92 |
| S2 | 75.60–75.68 | -5.8% to -5.9% | wk high 03-06 75.68 · wk low 06-26 75.60 |
| S3 | 71.28–72.96 | -9.2% to -11.3% | wk low 05-22 72.96 · wk low 05-01 72.75 · wk low ’25-09-05 72.43 · wk low 06-12 72.10 · wk high ’25-06-27 71.29 · wk low ’25-08-22 71.28 |
| ATH | 159.70 | +98.8% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 76.92 (-4.2%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 75.60–75.68.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 75.60 (-5.9%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 71.28–72.96.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 82.38 (+2.6%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 82.38 · Est. Down < 75.98 (-5.4%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 93.14 · Early Up ≥ 82.03 · Est. Down < 81.60.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Thematic ETFs holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-10-20 (Thematic ETFs bot list: /home/box/thematic-etf-scorecard/latest.json (built 2026-10-21 07:51 PT, from PortfolioDashboardBBG.xlsx MASTER!CK6 'THEMATIC ETFS' block; live at https://skc-thematic-etfs.pages.dev/)); Theme: Disruptive Innovation (Spec). Sector RS dropped (no distinct sector ETF), Trend score rescaled from 50 to 100. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and ^GSPC (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
