ARKF
Ark Blockchain & Fintech Inn
$42.33
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Thematic ETF · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $44.24–45.21 | +4.5% to +6.8% | wk high 04-17, wk low ’25-11-21, wk high ’25-02-21 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $41.13 | -2.8% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $40.03 | -5.4% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $43.53 | +2.8% | top of R1 (wk low 08-21, wk high ’25-01-31) |
APPENDIX · ARKF · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 29.8
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 4.6 + 2.3 = 6.9 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 11 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 29.8 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Up; Down pending 1/2 |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 29.9
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 8 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 19.4 / 20 |
| Raw | 29.9 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 29.9 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (ARKF close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 4 Early Down (−) ↓ | -3.75% | -6.26% | Est. Up ≥ 44.16 (+4.3%) · Est. Down < 40.77 |
| Trend · XLF | 4 Early Down (−) ↓ | -4.92% | -8.85% | Est. Up ≥ 44.76 (+5.8%) · Est. Down < 40.85 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -4.09% | -2.68% | Est. Up ≥ 52.54 (+24.1%) · Early Up ≥ 44.19 · Est. Down < 43.96 |
| Trading · XLF | 5 Established Down (−) → | -7.35% | -5.00% | Early Up ≥ 45.63 · Est. Down < 45.39 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 42.33)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 47.52–48.58 | +12.3% to +14.8% | wk low 01-02 47.52 · wk low ’25-12-19 47.68 · wk high 09-04 47.73 · wk high 10-16 47.87 · wk high 09-25 48.13 · 50% 48.58 |
| R2 | 44.24–45.21 | +4.5% to +6.8% | wk high 04-17 44.24 · wk low ’25-11-21 44.45 · wk high ’25-02-21 44.72 · wk low 10-16 44.82 · 61.8% 44.83 · wk low 10-02 45.21 |
| R1 | 42.45–43.53 | +0.3% to +2.8% | wk low 08-21 42.45 · wk high ’25-01-31 42.72 · wk high 07-17 42.80 · wk high 05-29 43.42 · wk low 09-18 43.43 · wk high 05-08 43.53 |
| S1 | 41.13–42.32 | -0.0% to -2.8% | wk high 03-06 42.32 · 200-day SMA 42.16 · 40-wk SMA 41.83 · wk high 2024-12-06 41.71 · wk high ’25-05-16 41.54 · wk high 06-19 41.13 |
| S2 | 40.03–40.53 | -4.2% to -5.4% | wk low 05-01 40.53 · wk low 05-22 40.03 |
| S3 | 39.06–39.29 | -7.2% to -7.7% | wk low ’25-01-31 39.29 · wk low 07-31 39.06 |
| ATH | 64.49 | +52.4% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 41.13 (-2.8%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 40.03–40.53.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 40.03 (-5.4%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 39.06–39.29.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 44.16 (+4.3%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 44.16 · Est. Down < 40.77 (-3.7%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 52.54 · Early Up ≥ 44.19 · Est. Down < 43.96.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Thematic ETFs holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-10-20 (Thematic ETFs bot list: /home/box/thematic-etf-scorecard/latest.json (built 2026-10-21 07:51 PT, from PortfolioDashboardBBG.xlsx MASTER!CK6 'THEMATIC ETFS' block; live at https://skc-thematic-etfs.pages.dev/)); Theme: Fintech. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLF (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
