AIPO
Defiance Ai & Power Infr Etf
$25.26
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
Thematic ETF · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $26.50–27.20 | +4.9% to +7.7% | wk high 03-27, wk high 02-13, wk high 02-27 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $23.65 | -6.4% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $22.56 | -10.7% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $26.23 | +3.8% | top of R1 (wk high 01-30, wk high ’25-10-17) |
APPENDIX · AIPO · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 16.4
| Short history (67 wks): RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 0.0 + 0.0 |
| Structure (computable checks) | 9 / 25 |
| Score = points earned × 100 / 55 computable points | 16.4 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays, on the history that exists) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · – Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA n/a (short history) · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. |
Scores · Trading 24.8
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 11.4 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 3 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost) | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 7.9 / 20 |
| Raw | 24.8 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 24.8 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (AIPO close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -11.99% | -3.29% | Early Up ≥ 28.00 · Est. Down < 27.85 |
| Trend · XLI | 5 Established Down (−) → | -8.91% | -4.08% | Est. Up ≥ 31.32 (+24.0%) · Early Up ≥ 27.14 · Est. Down < 27.00 |
| Trading · S&P | 2 Early Up (−) ↑ | +0.97% | -0.33% | Est. Up ≥ 31.50 (+24.7%) · Early Up ≥ 25.00 · Est. Down < 24.87 |
| Trading · XLI | 5 Established Down (−) → | -2.45% | -2.96% | Early Up ≥ 25.86 · Est. Down < 25.72 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 25.26)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 27.72–28.10 | +9.7% to +11.2% | 50% 27.72 · wk low 10-02 27.91 · wk low 07-17 28.10 |
| R2 | 26.50–27.20 | +4.9% to +7.7% | wk high 03-27 26.50 · wk high 02-13 26.59 · wk high 02-27 27.05 · wk low 09-18 27.19 · wk low 09-04 27.20 |
| R1 | 25.58–26.23 | +1.3% to +3.8% | wk high 01-30 25.58 · wk high ’25-10-17 25.80 · wk high ’25-10-31 25.87 · 61.8% 26.05 · wk low 07-31 26.23 |
| S1 | 23.65–24.26 | -4.0% to -6.4% | wk high ’25-12-12 24.26 · wk low 03-13 24.20 · wk low 04-03 23.65 |
| S2 | 22.56–23.12 | -8.5% to -10.7% | wk low 02-06 23.12 · wk low ’25-10-24 22.56 |
| S3 | 20.65–21.23 | -16.0% to -18.3% | wk low ’25-12-19 21.23 · wk high ’25-08-15 21.19 · wk high ’25-08-01 21.07 · wk high ’25-08-29 20.78 · wk low ’25-11-21 20.65 |
| ATH | 34.79 | +37.7% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 23.65 (-6.4%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 22.56–23.12.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 22.56 (-10.7%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 20.65–21.23.
- Trend vs S&P: above its 16-wk avg ≥ 28.00 · Est. Down < 27.85 (+10.3%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 31.50 · Early Up ≥ 25.00 · Est. Down < 24.87.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Thematic ETFs holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-10-20 (Thematic ETFs bot list: /home/box/thematic-etf-scorecard/latest.json (built 2026-10-21 07:51 PT, from PortfolioDashboardBBG.xlsx MASTER!CK6 'THEMATIC ETFS' block; live at https://skc-thematic-etfs.pages.dev/)); Theme: AI Power Infrastructure. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLI (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Short history (67 wks): under the 104 weekly bars of a full card. Checks that need more history (Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA) are left out of both the points earned and the points possible, and the score is rescaled to 0–100 (55 points computable). Trend shows N/A under 10 weekly bars or when fewer than 30 points can be computed. The 2-Friday confirmation uses the history that exists. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
