$139.59
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
GRNY holding · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $144.83–148.50 | +3.8% to +6.4% | wk low 03-20, wk low 07-17, wk low 07-03 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $134.75 | -3.5% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $131.64 | -5.7% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $143.87 | +3.1% | top of R1 (61.8% retr., wk low 04-03) |
APPENDIX · VST · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 8.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 0.0 + 0.0 = 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 5 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 8.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Neutral → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 12.9
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 2.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 0 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 8.4 / 20 |
| Raw | 12.9 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 12.9 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (VST close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -4.43% | -8.03% | Est. Up ≥ 178.58 (+27.9%) · Early Up ≥ 144.30 · Est. Down < 143.53 |
| Trend · XLU | 5 Established Down (−) ↓ | -6.74% | -11.54% | Est. Up ≥ 163.02 (+16.8%) · Early Up ≥ 148.70 · Est. Down < 147.91 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (+) → | -2.58% | +1.02% | Est. Up ≥ 184.90 (+32.5%) · Early Up ≥ 143.27 · Est. Down < 142.51 |
| Trading · XLU | 5 Established Down (−) → | -6.01% | -1.60% | Early Up ≥ 148.25 · Est. Down < 147.46 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 139.59)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 149.19–153.24 | +6.9% to +9.8% | wk low 01-09 149.19 · 40-wk SMA 152.72 · wk low 03-06 152.98 · 200-day SMA 153.24 |
| R2 | 144.83–148.50 | +3.8% to +6.4% | wk low 03-20 144.83 · wk low 07-17 148.14 · wk low 07-03 148.50 |
| R1 | 139.91–143.87 | +0.2% to +3.1% | 61.8% 139.91 · wk low 04-03 142.34 · wk high 2024-10-11 143.87 |
| S1 | 134.75–138.74 | -0.6% to -3.5% | wk high ’25-03-28 138.74 · wk low 02-06 138.53 · wk low 06-12 137.91 · wk low ’25-01-03 134.86 · wk low 08-07 134.75 |
| S2 | 131.64–134.50 | -3.6% to -5.7% | wk low 08-28 134.50 · wk low 10-02 133.44 · wk low 05-22 132.66 · wk low ’25-01-31 132.59 · wk low 2024-12-20 131.64 |
| S3 | 111.50–114.50 | -18.0% to -20.1% | wk low 2024-10-11 114.50 · wk low 2024-11-08 111.50 |
| ATH | 219.82 | +57.5% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 134.75 (-3.5%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 131.64–134.50.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 131.64 (-5.7%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 111.50–114.50.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 178.58 (+27.9%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 144.30 · Est. Down < 143.53 (+2.8%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 184.90 · Early Up ≥ 143.27 · Est. Down < 142.51.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Fundstrat Granny Shots US Large Cap ETF (GRNY) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-11-03 (https://grannyshots.com/fundstrat-granny-shots-us-large-cap-etf/grny-holdings/ (official; "Holdings as of November 3, 2026")); ETF weight 2.37%. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLU (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
