$657.00
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
GRNY holding · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $722.21–742.73 | +9.9% to +13.0% | wk high 10-09, wk high 08-21, wk high 06-26 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $642.11 | -2.3% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $628.05 | -4.4% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $708.06 | +7.8% | top of R1 (wk low 05-22, wk high 08-07) |
APPENDIX · PWR · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 32.8
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 0.0 + 5.7 = 5.7 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 14 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 32.8 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Neutral → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Neutral → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 77.5
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 15.4 + 7.7 / 30 |
| Structure | 17 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — oversold & turning up (with structure) | 18.8 / 25 |
| Band position | 18.6 / 20 |
| Raw | 77.5 (Established Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 77.5 Established Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (PWR close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -2.29% | -0.73% | Est. Up ≥ 677.09 (+3.1%) · Early Up ≥ 636.73 · Est. Down < 633.34 |
| Trend · XLI | 2 Early Up (−) ↑ | +1.01% | -1.55% | Est. Up ≥ 618.06 (-5.9%) · Est. Down < 571.73 |
| Trading · S&P | 2 Early Up (+) ↑ | +9.41% | +5.51% | Est. Up ≥ 708.84 (+7.9%) · Early Up ≥ 598.73 · Est. Down < 595.53 |
| Trading · XLI | 2 Early Up (+) ↑ | +5.75% | +2.72% | Est. Up ≥ 796.79 (+21.3%) · Early Up ≥ 618.93 · Est. Down < 615.63 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 657.00)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R2 | 722.21–742.73 | +9.9% to +13.0% | wk high 10-09 722.21 · wk high 08-21 724.80 · wk high 06-26 742.73 |
| R1 | 690.79–708.06 | +5.1% to +7.8% | wk low 05-22 690.79 · wk high 08-07 708.06 |
| S1 | 642.11–653.87 | -0.5% to -2.3% | wk high 09-11 653.87 · wk low 06-12 642.11 |
| S2 | 628.05–631.90 | -3.8% to -4.4% | 40-wk SMA 631.90 · 200-day SMA 628.05 |
| S3 | 593.70–608.78 | -7.3% to -9.6% | wk low 07-17 608.78 · wk low 09-18 607.45 · 50% 596.63 · wk low 09-04 593.70 |
| ATH | 788.75 | +20.1% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 642.11 (-2.3%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 628.05–631.90.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 628.05 (-4.4%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 593.70–608.78.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 677.09 (+3.1%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 636.73 · Est. Down < 633.34 (-3.6%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 708.84 · Early Up ≥ 598.73 · Est. Down < 595.53.
Sluymer context
- 2026-08-18 chartbook: “PWR’s weekly momentum is becoming oversold and poised to turn up as PWR extends its rebound from its 40-week ma. Source: RBC Wealth Management, Bloomberg, Optuma”
Notes & caveats
Fundstrat Granny Shots US Large Cap ETF (GRNY) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-11-03 (https://grannyshots.com/fundstrat-granny-shots-us-large-cap-etf/grny-holdings/ (official; "Holdings as of November 3, 2026")); ETF weight 2.33%. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLI (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
