PM
Philip Morris International Inc.
$208.03
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
GRNY holding · entry card
APPENDIX · PM · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 98.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 20.0 + 9.0 = 29.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 30 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 98.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Up |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Up |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✔ No lower high vs cycle high 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Neutral → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 70.0
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 5.7 / 30 |
| Structure | 25 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive but decelerating | 12.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 6.8 / 20 |
| Raw | 70.0 (Early Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 70.0 Early Up |
| ✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (PM close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +9.07% | +2.81% | Est. Up ≥ 191.63 (-7.9%) · Est. Down < 169.09 |
| Trend · XLP | 1 Established Up (−) ↑ | +2.63% | -0.30% | Est. Up ≥ 204.04 (-1.9%) · Est. Down < 186.84 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +3.69% | +1.77% | Est. Up ≥ 201.10 (-3.3%) · Est. Down < 173.59 |
| Trading · XLP | 2 Early Up (−) ↑ | +1.17% | -1.09% | Est. Up ≥ 223.90 (+7.6%) · Early Up ≥ 205.68 · Est. Down < 204.58 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 208.03)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R1 | 210.45–214.35 | +1.2% to +3.0% | wk high 10-16 210.45 · ATH 10-30 214.35 |
| S1 | 190.98–196.66 | -5.5% to -8.2% | wk high 08-28 196.66 · wk high 09-18 195.49 · wk high 05-22 193.05 · wk high 02-27 191.30 · wk high 02-13 190.98 |
| S2 | 182.23–186.69 | -10.3% to -12.4% | wk high ’25-06-20 186.69 · wk high 06-19 186.22 · wk low 09-25 185.84 · wk low 10-09 184.11 · wk low 08-14 184.02 · wk high ’25-07-18 183.99 · 50% 182.99 · 40-wk SMA 182.56 · 200-day SMA 182.23 |
| S3 | 175.59–181.01 | -13.0% to -15.6% | wk low 09-11 181.01 · wk high 03-20 177.25 · wk high ’25-05-09 176.49 · wk low 07-17 175.76 · 61.8% 175.59 |
| ATH | 214.35 | +3.0% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 190.98 (-8.2%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 182.23–186.69.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 182.23 (-12.4%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 175.59–181.01.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 191.63 (-7.9%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 191.63 · Est. Down < 169.09 (-18.7%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 201.10 · Est. Down < 173.59.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Fundstrat Granny Shots US Large Cap ETF (GRNY) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-11-03 (https://grannyshots.com/fundstrat-granny-shots-us-large-cap-etf/grny-holdings/ (official; "Holdings as of November 3, 2026")); ETF weight 2.71%. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLP (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
