PKG

APPENDIX · PKG · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD

Scores · Trend 100.0

RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10)	20.0 + 10.0 = 30.0 / 30
Structure (6 checks)	30 / 30
Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60	100.0 / 100
Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45)	Up
Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays)	confirmed Up
Trend (confirmed)	Up
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✔ No lower high vs cycle high 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5 Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only).

Scores · Trading 83.2

RS (S&P 20 + sector 10)	20.0 + 10.0 / 30
Structure	22 / 25
Coppock (daily) — positive & rising	25.0 / 25
Band position	6.2 / 20
Raw	83.2 (Established Up)
Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2)	+0
Final	83.2 Established Up
✔ Close above 50-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5

Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)

Horizon · benchmark	State	RS vs SMA	RS chg	Phase-transition price (PKG close needed)
Trend · S&P	1 Established Up (+) ↑	+6.93%	+9.96%	Est. Up ≥ 241.04 (-5.5%) · Est. Down < 208.99
Trend · XLB	1 Established Up (+) →	+3.05%	+5.07%	Est. Up ≥ 250.29 (-1.8%) · Est. Down < 223.54
Trading · S&P	1 Established Up (+) →	+5.09%	+2.17%	Est. Up ≥ 244.49 (-4.1%) · Est. Down < 178.46
Trading · XLB	1 Established Up (+) →	+1.76%	+0.05%	Est. Up ≥ 251.71 (-1.3%) · Est. Down < 222.46

Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 254.95)

Band	Range	Distance	Tools in the cluster
R1	255.60–260.13	+0.3% to +2.0%	wk high 08-28 255.60 · wk high 07-31 258.81 · wk high 08-14 259.98 · ATH 11-02 260.13
S1	243.50–250.82	-1.6% to -4.5%	wk high 2024-11-29 250.82 · wk high 02-13 249.51 · wk high 2024-11-08 245.00 · wk high 06-26 243.50
S2	242.63–242.68	-4.8% to -4.8%	wk high ’25-01-24 242.68 · wk high 09-25 242.63
S3	224.80–231.27	-9.3% to -11.8%	wk high 05-08 231.27 · 50% 230.85 · 40-wk SMA 230.58 · 200-day SMA 229.76 · wk low 09-11 225.33 · wk low 10-02 224.80
ATH	260.13	+2.0%	all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used)

Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)

Stops & phase transitions

Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 243.50 (-4.5%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 242.63–242.68.
Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 242.63 (-4.8%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 224.80–231.27.
Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 241.04 (-5.5%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 241.04 · Est. Down < 208.99 (-18.0%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 244.49 · Est. Down < 178.46.

Sluymer context

Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).

Notes & caveats

Fundstrat Granny Shots US Large Cap ETF (GRNY) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-11-03 (https://grannyshots.com/fundstrat-granny-shots-us-large-cap-etf/grny-holdings/ (official; "Holdings as of November 3, 2026")); ETF weight 2.55%. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLB (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).

Extended – wait for S1	$243.50–250.82	-1.6% to -4.5%	entry = top of S1 $250.82; the old 230.62–231.27 breakout-retest zone is dropped because it sits below the trend stop (242.63)
Profit-Taking Zone	$260.13–260.13	+2.0% to +2.0%	none: blue sky above the Breakout (trail the stop)
Trading stop · daily close	below $243.50	-4.5%	trading downgrade
Trend stop · Friday close	below $242.63	-4.8%	trend downgrade one state
Breakout Buy Level	close above $260.13	+2.0%	top of R1 (wk high 08-28, wk high 07-31)

Action levels

Trend at a glance