$126.19
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
GRNY holding · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $137.43–139.72 | +8.9% to +10.7% | wk low 08-21, wk low ’25-03-14, wk low 02-27 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $121.24 | -3.9% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | No support nearby | — | only one support band below the price (AUDITFIX_V1) |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $135.25 | +7.2% | top of R1 (wk low 10-02, wk low 04-10) |
APPENDIX · ORCL · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 5.0
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 2.0 + 1.0 = 3.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 0 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 5.0 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 0/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 27.0
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 5.7 / 30 |
| Structure | 5 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — negative & falling | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 13.8 / 20 |
| Raw | 27.0 (Established Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 27.0 Established Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✖ Close above 200-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (ORCL close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (+) → | -5.21% | +2.97% | Est. Up ≥ 138.86 (+10.0%) · Est. Down < 138.12 |
| Trend · XLK | 5 Established Down (+) → | -2.66% | +4.15% | Est. Up ≥ 134.93 (+6.9%) · Est. Down < 134.22 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -1.63% | -7.77% | Est. Up ≥ 154.23 (+22.2%) · Early Up ≥ 128.65 · Est. Down < 127.97 |
| Trading · XLK | 2 Early Up (−) ↑ | +1.65% | -3.32% | Est. Up ≥ 126.31 (+0.1%) · Early Up ≥ 124.71 · Est. Down < 124.04 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 126.19)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 152.42–156.60 | +20.8% to +24.1% | wk low ’25-01-17 152.42 · wk low ’25-01-31 152.66 · wk high ’25-05-02 153.06 · wk high 09-25 153.60 · wk low ’25-05-23 154.26 · 40-wk SMA 155.25 · 200-day SMA 156.29 · wk high ’25-03-28 156.60 |
| R2 | 137.43–139.72 | +8.9% to +10.7% | wk low 08-21 137.43 · wk low ’25-03-14 137.70 · wk low 02-27 138.59 · wk low 09-04 139.72 |
| R1 | 131.58–135.25 | +4.3% to +7.2% | wk low 10-02 131.58 · wk low 04-10 134.57 · wk low 02-06 135.25 |
| S1 | 121.24–122.76 | -2.7% to -3.9% | wk low 10-23 122.76 · wk low ’25-04-25 121.24 |
| ATH | 345.72 | +174.0% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 121.24 (-3.9%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor: no support nearby.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): No support nearby: only one support band exists below the price, so there is no separate trend stop.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 138.86 (+10.0%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 138.86 · Est. Down < 138.12 (+9.5%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 154.23 · Early Up ≥ 128.65 · Est. Down < 127.97.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Fundstrat Granny Shots US Large Cap ETF (GRNY) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-11-03 (https://grannyshots.com/fundstrat-granny-shots-us-large-cap-etf/grny-holdings/ (official; "Holdings as of November 3, 2026")); ETF weight 2.07%. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLK (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
