$91.94
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
GRNY holding · entry card
| Buy zone (breakout retest) | — | — | no confirmed breakout, so no retest zone |
| Profit-Taking Zone | $95.30–97.90 | +3.7% to +6.5% | wk high 03-27, wk high 07-24, wk high 05-22 |
| Trading stop · daily close | below $88.91 | -3.3% | trading downgrade |
| Trend stop · Friday close | below $87.36 | -5.0% | trend downgrade one state |
| Breakout Buy Level | close above $94.57 | +2.9% | top of R1 (wk high 06-12, 61.8% retr.) |
APPENDIX · OKE · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 76.7
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 20.0 + 1.0 = 21.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 25 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 76.7 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Up |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Up |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Down → 10-02 Down → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Up. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 48.3
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 4.6 + 4.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 20 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive but decelerating | 12.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 7.2 / 20 |
| Raw | 48.3 (Neutral) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 48.3 Neutral |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (OKE close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +5.56% | +5.12% | Est. Up ≥ 92.00 (+0.1%) · Est. Down < 87.97 |
| Trend · XLE | 5 Established Down (+) → | -5.59% | +1.39% | Early Up ≥ 102.38 · Est. Down < 101.83 |
| Trading · S&P | 4 Early Down (−) ↓ | -0.71% | -2.13% | Est. Up ≥ 93.03 (+1.2%) · Est. Down < 85.15 |
| Trading · XLE | 3 Neutral (−) ↓ | +0.09% | -1.13% | Est. Up ≥ 92.62 (+0.7%) · Early Up ≥ 92.20 · Est. Down < 91.70 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 91.94)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 98.43–100.05 | +7.1% to +8.8% | wk high 2024-10-25 98.43 · wk high 09-04 99.85 · wk high ’25-02-14 100.05 |
| R2 | 95.30–97.90 | +3.7% to +6.5% | wk high 03-27 95.30 · wk high 07-24 95.88 · wk high 05-22 96.07 · 50% 97.15 · wk low 2024-12-20 97.22 · wk high 08-21 97.90 |
| R1 | 92.14–94.57 | +0.2% to +2.9% | wk high 06-12 92.14 · 61.8% 92.21 · wk high 05-01 92.53 · wk low 2024-11-01 92.83 · wk low ’25-02-07 94.57 |
| S1 | 88.91–91.13 | -0.9% to -3.3% | wk low 08-28 91.13 · wk high 06-26 90.49 · 40-wk SMA 89.50 · wk high 02-27 89.00 · 200-day SMA 88.91 |
| S2 | 87.36–88.19 | -4.1% to -5.0% | wk high ’25-05-02 88.19 · wk high ’25-04-18 88.13 · wk high ’25-05-16 87.98 · wk low ’25-03-07 87.36 |
| S3 | 83.08–85.15 | -7.4% to -9.6% | wk high ’25-06-13 85.15 · wk low 10-02 84.15 · wk high ’25-07-18 83.91 · wk low 05-08 83.66 · wk high ’25-08-01 83.58 · wk low 05-29 83.57 · wk low 08-07 83.48 · wk low 06-19 83.08 |
| ATH | 118.07 | +28.4% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 88.91 (-3.3%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 87.36–88.19.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 87.36 (-5.0%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 83.08–85.15.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 92.00 (+0.1%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 92.00 · Est. Down < 87.97 (-4.3%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 93.03 · Est. Down < 85.15.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Fundstrat Granny Shots US Large Cap ETF (GRNY) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-11-03 (https://grannyshots.com/fundstrat-granny-shots-us-large-cap-etf/grny-holdings/ (official; "Holdings as of November 3, 2026")); ETF weight 2.38%. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLE (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
