$135.63
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
GRNY holding · entry card
APPENDIX · MSTR · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 53.3
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 18.0 + 9.0 = 27.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 5 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 53.3 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Neutral |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Up; Neutral pending 1/2 |
| Trend (confirmed) | Up |
✖ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 0/6 · ✖ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 0/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 5/5 · ✖ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 0/5 · ✖ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 0/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Up → 10-09 Up → 10-16 Up → 10-23 Up → 10-30 Neutral. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 40.7
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 0.0 + 7.7 / 30 |
| Structure | 12 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — BOUNCE tag — oversold & turning up inside a down structure (no boost) | 2.5 / 25 |
| Band position | 18.5 / 20 |
| Raw | 40.7 (Early Down) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 40.7 Early Down |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✔ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 3/3 · ✔ Close above 100-day SMA 4/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✖ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 0/3 · ✖ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 0/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (MSTR close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 1 Established Up (−) → | +3.82% | -3.62% | Est. Up ≥ 128.01 (-5.6%) · Est. Down < 94.94 |
| Trend · XLK | 1 Established Up (−) → | +6.93% | -2.51% | Est. Up ≥ 124.06 (-8.5%) · Est. Down < 94.94 |
| Trading · S&P | 5 Established Down (−) → | -2.68% | -2.31% | Est. Up ≥ 169.18 (+24.7%) · Early Up ≥ 139.67 · Est. Down < 138.92 |
| Trading · XLK | 2 Early Up (+) ↑ | +0.56% | +2.41% | Est. Up ≥ 138.76 (+2.3%) · Early Up ≥ 135.40 · Est. Down < 134.67 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 135.63)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R3 | 197.00–198.40 | +45.2% to +46.3% | wk high 05-15 197.00 · wk high ’25-12-12 198.40 |
| R2 | 155.61–156.11 | +14.7% to +15.1% | wk low ’25-12-05 155.61 · wk low 05-01 156.11 |
| R1 | 149.54–152.27 | +10.3% to +12.3% | wk high 03-06 149.54 · wk low 01-02 149.75 · wk high 03-20 152.27 |
| S1 | 133.23–134.16 | -1.1% to -1.8% | 200-day SMA 134.16 · 40-wk SMA 133.23 |
| S2 | 116.40–118.40 | -12.7% to -14.2% | wk low 02-27 118.40 · wk low 04-03 116.40 |
| S3 | 104.17–105.50 | -22.2% to -23.2% | wk high 08-07 105.50 · wk high 07-10 104.78 · wk high 07-24 104.60 · wk low 02-06 104.17 |
| ATH | 543.00 | +300.4% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 133.23 (-1.8%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 116.40–118.40.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 116.40 (-14.2%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 104.17–105.50.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 128.01 (-5.6%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 128.01 · Est. Down < 94.94 (-30.0%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 169.18 · Early Up ≥ 139.67 · Est. Down < 138.92.
Sluymer context
- Not named in the 15 reports reviewed (Aug 18 – Oct 13, 2026).
Notes & caveats
Fundstrat Granny Shots US Large Cap ETF (GRNY) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-11-03 (https://grannyshots.com/fundstrat-granny-shots-us-large-cap-etf/grny-holdings/ (official; "Holdings as of November 3, 2026")); ETF weight 2.92%. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLK (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
