$337.98
Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close (weekly items: Fri, Oct 30)
GRNY holding · entry card
APPENDIX · JPM · TECHNICAL TRADING SCORECARD
Scores · Trend 36.7
| RS vs S&P (20) + sector (10) | 2.0 + 0.0 = 2.0 / 30 |
| Structure (6 checks) | 20 / 30 |
| Score = (RS + structure) × 100/60 | 36.7 / 100 |
| Raw state (Up ≥ 60 · Down < 45) | Down |
| Confirmation (2 consecutive Fridays) | confirmed Down |
| Trend (confirmed) | Down |
✔ Fri close above 40-wk SMA 6/6 · ✔ 40-wk SMA rising (4 wks) 4/4 · ✖ No lower high vs cycle high 0/5 · ✖ Fri close above 20-wk SMA 0/5 · ✔ Fri close above 200-wk (4-yr) SMA 5/5 · ✔ 4-mo SMA > 13-mo SMA (completed months, to Sep) 5/5
Weekly raw states: 09-25 Up → 10-02 Neutral → 10-09 Down → 10-16 Down → 10-23 Down → 10-30 Down. Coppock, band position, breadth and modifiers no longer enter the Trend score (Coppock chart below is reference only). |
Scores · Trading 76.1
| RS (S&P 20 + sector 10) | 20.0 + 0.0 / 30 |
| Structure | 13 / 25 |
| Coppock (daily) — positive & rising | 25.0 / 25 |
| Band position | 18.1 / 20 |
| Raw | 76.1 (Established Up) |
| Modifiers (10-yr > 5% rising −3, seasonal −2) | +0 |
| Final | 76.1 Established Up |
| ✖ Close above 50-day SMA 0/5 · ✖ 50-day SMA rising (10 d) 0/3 · ✖ Close above 100-day SMA 0/4 · ✔ Close above 200-day SMA 5/5 · ✔ 200-day SMA rising (20 d) 3/3 · ✔ No daily lower high (last two swing highs) 5/5 |
Relative state (weekly RS vs 16-wk SMA + 2-wk slope; daily RS vs 15-d SMA + 3-d slope; Neutral ±0.25%; phase price = next Fri / next close, benchmark flat)
| Horizon · benchmark | State | RS vs SMA | RS chg | Phase-transition price (JPM close needed) |
|---|
| Trend · S&P | 5 Established Down (+) → | -2.04% | +0.25% | Est. Up ≥ 346.34 (+2.5%) · Early Up ≥ 344.79 · Est. Down < 342.96 |
| Trend · XLF | 5 Established Down (−) → | -3.07% | -2.53% | Est. Up ≥ 349.00 (+3.3%) · Est. Down < 346.88 |
| Trading · S&P | 1 Established Up (+) → | +1.77% | +0.34% | Est. Up ≥ 333.24 (-1.4%) · Est. Down < 294.45 |
| Trading · XLF | 5 Established Down (−) → | -1.62% | -2.06% | Est. Up ≥ 368.39 (+9.0%) · Early Up ≥ 343.90 · Est. Down < 342.06 |
Full bands (cluster rule: 2 or more tools within 3%; Δ vs 337.98)
| Band | Range | Distance | Tools in the cluster |
|---|
| R2 | 362.86–366.50 | +7.4% to +8.4% | wk high 09-04 362.86 · ATH 08-13 366.50 |
| R1 | 343.45–350.37 | +1.6% to +3.7% | wk high 06-26 343.45 · wk high 10-16 344.40 · wk low 08-21 350.37 |
| S1 | 330.86–337.25 | -0.2% to -2.1% | wk high 01-09 337.25 · wk high ’25-12-26 330.86 |
| S2 | 318.01–326.40 | -3.4% to -5.9% | wk high 02-13 326.40 · wk low 07-17 325.75 · wk low 10-09 325.07 · wk low 07-03 325.01 · 40-wk SMA 323.52 · 200-day SMA 323.23 · 50% 322.80 · wk high ’25-11-14 322.25 · wk high 04-24 320.24 · wk high ’25-10-03 318.01 |
| S3 | 312.12–316.30 | -6.4% to -7.7% | wk high 05-08 316.30 · 61.8% 312.49 · wk high ’25-10-17 312.12 |
| ATH | 366.50 | +8.4% | all-time high; Profit-Taking fallback when no 2-tool band sits above the Breakout (extensions no longer used) |
Coppock, breadth and RS (reference only; not in the Trend score)
Stops & phase transitions
- Tier 1 (trading stop): daily close < 330.86 (-2.1%): trading downgrades one state, re-anchor to S2 318.01–326.40.
- Tier 2 (trend stop = Trend Breakdown / invalidation): Friday close < 318.01 (-5.9%): trend downgrades one state, re-anchor to S3 312.12–316.30.
- Trend vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 346.34 (+2.5%) · above its 16-wk avg ≥ 344.79 · Est. Down < 342.96 (+1.5%) (next Friday, benchmark flat).
- Trading vs S&P: Est. Up ≥ 333.24 · Est. Down < 294.45.
Sluymer context
- 2026-10-13 chartbook: “JPM has pulled back to its 50-62% support band between 321-330 just above its rising 200-day ma which we expect will support an oversold rebound heading into earnings season.”
Notes & caveats
Fundstrat Granny Shots US Large Cap ETF (GRNY) holding, entry card (treated like the US Watchlist). Holdings: issuer file as of 2026-11-03 (https://grannyshots.com/fundstrat-granny-shots-us-large-cap-etf/grny-holdings/ (official; "Holdings as of November 3, 2026")); ETF weight 2.38%. Benchmarks: S&P 500 (20 pts) and XLF (10 pts). Trading items and bands use the Tue, Nov 3, 2026 close; trend uses the Fri, Oct 30 week. Entry levels: Buy Zone = breakout retest zone (BUY names only: from the broken level down to the floor of the resistance band it came from, or level −2%, whichever is tighter; a weekly close below = failed breakout); Breakout Buy Level = top of R1; Trend Breakdown (invalidation) = S2 floor on a Friday close; Profit-Taking = next resistance band above the breakout. Verdict: AVOID = Trend Down (confirmed on two Fridays) or Friday close below a falling 40-wk SMA; BUY = a weekly close above a Breakout Buy Level fixed from the prior week's data with ≥2 tools within 3% (most recent such breakout in the last 4 weeks), every Friday close since and the latest close still at or above it, and Trend not Down; WAIT = otherwise. Buy Zone is reference only. Coppock = 10-bar WMA of ROC(14)+ROC(11), standard settings used as a placeholder because his are unpublished; DAS is omitted. Zone = sign + 3-yr percentile; direction = 2 bars. SMAs are simple; swings are 5-bar extremes; the channel is a 2-yr log regression ±2σ. The breadth proxy is the % of 500 current S&P 500 members with a rising weekly Coppock; it has survivorship bias, is a regime input only, and no other stock was scored. Weights are our choices (playbook §10); the state rule matched 86% / 83% of his sector states in-sample. Data: Yahoo Finance (unadjusted); weight from the Portfolio Dashboard (PIM 11/2 EOD, read-only).
